DOWNSIDE LEGACY AT TWO DEGREES OF PRESIDENT CLINTON
SECTION: ASIA
SUBSECTION: TAIWAN
Revised 8/20/99

 

TAIWAN

 

General

Beijing demands Taiwan be reunified with China. After China's Jiang visit in Nov 1997, Clinton urged Taipei to get on with negotiations with China. Taiwan declares itself a sovereign democracy. The last time Taiwan held national elections (1996) - China fired missiles into Taiwan's waters, assembled a huge military operation and disrupted commerce. In reaction, the US sent carriers. Beijing then threatened a sea of fire if the US carriers entered the strait, and further warned of nuclear missiles on Los Angeles if the US defended Taiwan too much. China now (June 98) has 13 of its 18 missiles targeted at the US.

June 4, 1998 - China President Jiang Zemin said he will seek confirmation of US pledges not to interfere in Tiawan. "The US side has very clearly pledged not to support . the independence of Taiwan or its re-admittance into international organizations." Chinese president Jiang Xemin said in a speech that the coming "liberation" of Taiwan was a "holy duty."

In response to the House resolution 411-0 demanding Beijing abandon its threat to invade Taiwan if it declared independence, China's official Xinhua news agency said "Every sovereign state has the right to take all means it deems essential, including military means, to safeguard its national sovereignty and territorial integration."

Chinese Foreign Minister on 6/22/98 said: "The president should, at an appropriate occasion, make a public statement reiterating what the U.S. has already promised on the Taiwan question . The U.S. side should also indicate it will take concrete actions to match the commitment it has made with deeds."

 

Diary

On 6/27/98 Taiwan denounced China for refusing to rule out military action against the island during a summit in Beijing between China's President Jiang Zemin and President Clinton. Hundreds of Taiwanese marched through Taipei to express concern over the Jiang-Clinton meeting. One banner read: ``Oppose Superpowers Invading Taiwan's Sovereignty.'' Washington cut diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979 in order to recognize China. But unofficial ties remain close, and Washington is bound by law to ensure Taiwan can defend itself. Mr Jiang claimed Beijing has opened several channels of communication with the Dalai Lama and said the offer for talks with the Tibetan leader was open if he first recognised Taiwan as a Chinese province.

6/29/98 Fox News reports that "President Clinton Tuesday reaffirmed a U.S. committment to one China ruled from Beijing and opposition to independence for Taiwan."

Washington Times, 7/1/98 Warrent Strobel ".Officials of the Taipei government had expressed satisfaction earlier this year with U.S. assurances that Mr. Clinton would not harm their national interests in conversations in mainland China, but were concerned that the assurances had not been made in public. Mr. Hu (Jason Hu, the foreign minister of the Republic of China in Taiwan) recalled that the United States, in its 1994 Taiwan policy review, pledged that it would work to "make Taiwan's voice be heard" in all international organizations to which it is not a member. "How does that square with shutting the door on membership?" he asked rhetorically.."

Summarized from Xcoastie post: Not only has Clinton pledged support to Taiwan but in 1996, he put thousands of US service men and women in harms way to "protect the sovereignty of Taiwan." But now, June 1998, Clinton's foreign policy favors China to the exclusion of the sovereignty of Taiwan. Parallels to Clinton foreign policy and command decisions in Somalia, Haiti, Rwanda, Cuba and Bosnia noted.

Daily Republican Tatsudo Akayama 7/1/98 ".The Clinton administration sent shock waves throughout the Pacific Rim this week when the president placed the wishes of communist leaders in Beijing ahead of established commitments with Tokyo who, at U.S. insistence, has formally recognized the Nationalist government of Taiwan as the legitimate government of China. Parris H. Chang, a Taiwan legislator told reporters '...It's wrong, morally and politically, for Clinton to collude with the communist dictatorship to restrict the future of a democratic country...Beijing is trying to manipulate the United States to isolate Taiwan diplomatically. That Clinton has fallen into that kind of trap is unfortunate. . . . U.S. policy toward Taiwan is on a slippery slope. More and more, the United States is making concessions to China without any return.' "

7/2/98 Washington Post "The outlines of a deal are beginning to emerge. China gives President Clinton air time for his speech. Mr. Clinton says what China wants to hear on Taiwan. Then, in classic Clinton fashion, the White House tries to have things both ways, denying that U.S. policy has changed when in fact it has, and not for the better. Past administrations recognized the Beijing government as the legitimate government of China and "acknowledged" China's position with regard to Taiwan. But "acknowledge" did not mean "accept." "

Fox News 7/3/98 Hong Kong: "U.S. President Clinton said on Friday he was not changing U.S. policy in any way when he stated his opposition to independence for Taiwan . Some commentators have interpreted the remarks as going beyond the previous U.S. position. .Beijing had pushed for a formal written statement reaffirming U.S. policy on Taiwan from Clinton. The administration rejected that approach because it would look like the United States was negotiating the future of democratic Taiwan with the communist government in Beijing. But officials decided Clinton could make a unilateral statement of U.S. policy. .Clinton stressed: "I didn't intend and don't believe I changed the substance of our position in anyway.'' .Taiwan's President Lee said on Thursday he was grateful to Clinton for keeping a U.S. vow to continue arming the Nationalist-ruled island. "

7/3/98 Gregg Jones Dallas Morning News ".From the outset of the American president's visit, Chinese officials have emphasized Taiwan as the top item on their agenda. The greatest fear in Taiwan is that the United States might use the nation as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China over nuclear proliferation and other strategic issues. Chi Su, a senior adviser to Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui. "President Clinton may feel like he has done nothing damaging to us, but his good intentions may be twisted by the interpretation attached to these terms in Beijing.".Polls show that fewer than 5 percent of Taiwanese favor immediate reunification with China. Although a majority of Taiwanese say they support eventual reunification with the mainland, they say China first must become a democracy with a capitalist economy."We are treated as a noncitizen in the world," said Mr. Chi, the presidential adviser. "We have no way to express ourselves on issues that affect us, all because someone claims they own us. Frustration is quite deep. People ask what have we done to deserve this?""

7/2/98 Wall Street Journal ".The bedrock of U.S. policy toward Taiwan has always been the Shanghai Communiqu‚, issued in 1972 as the two nations began their rapprochement, and affirmed in later agreements and the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. In this document the U.S. declared that it "acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is part of China. The United States government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves." .consider the President's language: "We don't support independence for Taiwan; or two Chinas; or one Taiwan, one China. And we don't believe that Taiwan should be a member in any organization for which statehood is a requirement." Anyone who reads English can see that this is miles beyond the careful language Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger crafted in 1972.."

The Claremont Institute Bruce Herschensohn 7/6/98 ".I hope President Clinton remembers, or at least has been reminded of, our position on Taiwan's membership in the United Nations Organization in 1971, when it was expelled from that organization. President Nixon's U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., George Bush, was the leader in trying to maintain the Republic's continuation of membership and referred to the ouster of the Republic as a "moment of infamy." President Nixon said that the United States "deeply regrets the action taken by the U.N. to deprive the Republic of China of representation in that organization.".

7/6/98 AP Barry Schweid ".Richard Bush, the top U.S. liaison official to Taiwan, was sent to Taipei to talk to President Lee Teng-hui. Lee told Bush the United States should not consult Beijing when discussing Taiwan's future. "In the future, your country should negotiate directly with us about any matters involving Taiwan,'' he said. "You don't have to and should not hold bilateral talks with the Chinese communists'' about Taiwan. .."

7/7/98 Wall Street Journal Parris Chang ".So Mr. Clinton espoused democracy and freedom in China, and then committed the U.S. to oppose the right of Taiwan, a democratic and open society, to determine its own future. That Taiwan even became an "issue" in talks with China foretold the Clinton administration's willingness to trade Taiwan's future for favor with Beijing's leadership. Mr. Clinton has given the Chinese what every previous president, Democrat or Republican, has deliberately withheld: a U.S. commitment to China's goal of one day bringing Taiwan under Beijing's control."

7/10/98 Washington Post John Pomfret "China urged Taiwan today to "face reality" and submit to holding talks on eventual reunification with China following comments from President Clinton that the United States would not support an independent Taiwan.The developments indicate that after a three-year freeze, talks could begin as early as this fall between the two sides. They also underscore the important role the United States has played in forcing Taiwan to the bargaining table."

7/10/98 China Daily Bian Hongwe ".Yuan Ming, a professor with Beijing University, said that China has always been against US arms sales to Taiwan, which is an integral part of China. China says that such arms sales harm China's peaceful unification. The renewal of the US-Japan security alliance has increased China's suspicions that such an alliance would extend to the Taiwan Straits."

7/10/98 AP Tom Raum "The Senate underscored the U.S. commitment to Taiwan in a 92-0 vote Friday that Republicans called a ``powerful signal'' repudiating President Clinton's comments during his China trip. Democrats said the resolution, repeating a U.S. pledge to help Taiwan ``maintain a sufficient self-defense capability,'' merely reaffirms existing law.."

Boston Herald 7/13/98 Reuters " China today lashed out at the U.S. Senate for a resolution supporting arch foe Taiwan, saying such measures were ``doomed to failure.'' The Xinhua news agency also hinted that the resolution threatened to undermine progress achieved by President Bill Clinton during his historic visit to China that ended this month. ``China strongly resents and is resolutely opposed to recent anti-China resolutions adopted by the U.S. Senate,'' Xinhua quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang as saying.."

7/7/98 Pat Buchanan "A collision between the United States and China over Taiwan now seems certain. And Bill Clinton's gratuitous assertion in China that the United States opposes Taiwan's membership in any organization that requires nationhood as a condition makes it more certain..Unless communism is overthrown in China, and Taipei and Beijing freely agree to reunite, it would appear that unification, if it is to come, must come by force. And China has indicated it will go to war rather than see Taiwan go free."

7/10/98 Heritage Foundation Stephen Yates "President Clinton's statement against Taiwan's participation in international organizations makes the United States an accomplice in China's campaign to squeeze Taiwan into submission by isolating the island internationally. Nothing in the existing U.S.-China joint communiques suggests or obliges the United States to oppose Taiwan's membership in any international organization."

Boston Herald 7/13/98 Reuters " China today lashed out at the U.S. Senate for a resolution supporting arch foe Taiwan, saying such measures were ``doomed to failure.'' The Xinhua news agency also hinted that the resolution threatened to undermine progress achieved by President Bill Clinton during his historic visit to China that ended this month. ``China strongly resents and is resolutely opposed to recent anti-China resolutions adopted by the U.S. Senate,'' Xinhua quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang as saying.."

7/15/98 Hong Kong Standard on China Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang who said ".``We hope that the US government will adopt effective measures to eliminate interference and prevent Congress from passing anti-China resolutions so that Sino-US relations will not be harmed.'' The US constitution entitles the government ``to adopt effective measures to prevent the Congress from passing such resolutions''."

7/17/98 Washington Times Richard Halloran "The Chinese government has wasted little time seeking to turn to advantage President Clinton's new policy on Taiwan that he enunciated during his nine- day visit to China. Despite administration disclaimers that Mr. Clinton broke no new ground, the record shows that he has become the first U.S. president to commit the United States to Beijing's concept on the fate of Taiwan, the island nation of 21 million people that considers itself to be independent but that Beijing claims is a province of China. Shortly after Mr. Clinton left China, the spokesman for the Foreign Ministry in Beijing, Tang Guoqiang, stated: "We attach great importance to these commitments." Next, the Chinese ambassador to the United Nations, Qin Huasun, wrote a stinging letter to U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan demanding that the question of Taiwan's admission to the United Nations be precluded from the agenda in the fall.."

8/5/98 Gerald Segal Wall Street Journal "In order to forestall American efforts to push them into the arms of the mainland, representatives of the Taipei government are embarking on a subtle campaign to remind the world that the Taiwanese military retains the option of completing the development of a nuclear deterrent."

Lateline News of China/Agence France Presse 8/25/98 "Taipe: Taiwan's military has finished setting up three batteries of US-made Patriotanti-ballistic missiles around the capital to counter any possible threat from the mainland, a report said on Monday.."

Lateline News of China/Reuters 8/29/98 "China on Friday denounced U.S. plans to sell missiles and anti-submarine torpedoes worth $350 million to Taiwan, warning that such moves would sabotage peaceful reunification between the two rivals. ``We demand the U.S. government strictly abide by the August 17 Sino-U.S. communique through practical action and stop any moves that violate China's sovereignty and sabotage China's peaceful reunification,'' a foreign ministry spokesman said."

South China Morning Post 10/7/98 Willy Wo-Lap Lam "China's rough timetable for the "liberation" of Taiwan is still quite a long way off: 2020, by most accounts. Yet Beijing has of late been displaying uncharacteristic confidence that the "breakaway province" can be recovered smoothly, and on its terms.. This daguozhanlue, as Chinese academics and cadres phrase it in official journals, can be stated succinctly: in global status and clout, China has achieved rough parity with the United States, and if Beijing can maintain this momentum, the Taiwan problem can be cracked well ahead of the "timetable". According to a respected foreign-affairs academic, Beijing is convinced it is fast narrowing the "power gap" with the US after the two presidential summits of October 1997 and last June. "Jiang Zemin and Bill Clinton talked as equals," he said. "This shows up what is obvious. In terms of economic, military and diplomatic influence, China is closing in on the US." ..He added that China was able to strike an "unofficial deal" with the US at the two summits. Beijing respected Washington's "spheres of influence" in the world, including Europe and the Middle East; and Beijing would not challenge a number of American strongholds in the Asia-Pacific region. In return, Washington agreed to honour China's national and diplomatic interests. And in the near term, those interests were focused on Taiwan. Subscribers to this theory of covert deals pointed to widespread speculation that during the June summit, Mr Clinton made "secret" pledges on Taiwan, including limiting the range of armaments that the US would sell to the island.."

Central News Agency 10-15-98 Flor Wang ".Justice Minister Cheng Chung-mo said on Thursday that the government is actively probing the role of mainland Chinese capital in Taiwan's year-end elections. Responding to inquiries raised by Legislator Tsai Huang-lang, Cheng said the Investigation Bureau under the Justice Ministry has gained some information regarding the issue, but that he could not divulge details because the probe has already started. Earlier this month, at an interpellation session in the Legislative Yuan, Tsai claimed that mainland Chinese capital has infiltrated the campaigns for Taiwan's legislative elections, as well as the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral and council elections, both slated for December, in the following ways: -- using Taiwan businessmen who travel frequently between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, by injecting mainland money via their companies; -- using brokers in cross-strait affairs to carry mainland capital to Taiwan to back certain candidates selected by the mainland authorities; -- cultivating certain candidates around the island to serve as mainland China's spin doctors.."

The Washington Times 10/16/98 James Hackett ". Meanwhile, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is carrying out a major modernization program to build up the forces needed to apply pressure on Taiwan. Beijing's cross-strait forces, always large in number, are being improved by the acquisition of modern air and naval weapons, and advanced missile technologies. Just a month after President Clinton's much ballyhooed trip to China, the State Council issued a white paper on defense that specifically refused to renounce the use of force against Taiwan. It also criticized the U.S. military alliances with Japan and South Korea, and called for an alternative power structure in the Western Pacific (presumably one dominated by Beijing). Richard Fisher of the Heritage Foundation has documented the Chinese military buildup. The naval forces that will lead an assault across the Taiwan Strait are givven high priority. Four Kilo-class attack submarines have been bought from Russia and 10 more may be on order. These advanced submarines are extremely quiet and carry modern torpedoes that pose a threat not only to Taiwan's navy but also to the U.S. 7th fleet.Perhaps the most advanced weapon system bought by China is the Russian Su-27 jet fighter that is considered better than the U.S. F-15 in some respects. Fifty have been delivered from Russia and 200 are being produced in China. The Su-27 fires the AA-11 Archer, the first helmet-sighted air-to-air missile in Asia, plus supersonic anti-ship missiles. And now the PLA wants to buy the Russian AA-12 Adder, a self- guided air-to-air missile with a range of 56 miles, which would give the mainland the ability to strike Taiwan's air defenses from well out over the Taiwan Strait..But the PLA is eager to launch more missiles into the Taiwan Strait to threaten the trade and maritime traffic on which the island nation depends. Normally cautious, the leadership in Beijing could be induced by the economic downturn to unleash the military against Taiwan, to divert public attention from domestic problems. And what better time, with a weak and compliant president in the White House? ..A White House source recently was quoted as saying, "There's never a good time for an arms sale to Taiwan," since such sales are tracked by Beijing officials. This desire to avoid anything that might upset China's communist rulers includes a continuing refusal to sell Taiwan the AIM-120 air-to-air missile it needs to defend against Russia's SU-27 with its Archer air-to-air missile. The administration's rationale for refusing the sale ---- that it might start an arms race in the region --- is patently ridiculous.."

Xinhua News Agency 10/29/98 Chinese Communist Party ".China expressed here today its strong resentment and firm opposition to the anti-China contents enshrined in two US acts passed recently by United States Congress. In a statement made by Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang in a regular press conference this afternoon, Tang said that these contents serve to interfere in China's internal affairs, support the Tibetan separatist elements, obstruct the normal cooperation between China and the United States in economic, trade and other fields, include Taiwan into the TMD system and continue to sell arms to Taiwan. These contents were contained in the Omnibus Appropriation Act and the 1999 Fiscal Year Department of Defense Authorization Act, which were passed recently by the US Congress. "By passing these acts, the US Congress has gravely violated the basic norms of international relations and the principles enshrined in the three Sino-US Joint Communiques, interfered in China's internal affairs, seriously hurt the feelings of the Chinese people, placed obstacles to the Chinese people's great cause of peaceful reunification of the motherland and normal exchanges and cooperation between the two countries," Tang said.."

Washington Times 11/12/98 Bill Gertz ".China is set to conduct the first flight test next month of a new mobile intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach the western United States, The Washington Times has learned. U.S. intelligence agencies reported secretly within the U.S. government last week that the initial flight test of the DF-31 ICBM will take place in December, and some U.S. officials are concerned it could be part of a new campaign of intimidation by Beijing against Taiwan. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for Dec. 5 on the island of Taiwan, which China regards as a breakaway province. The opposition Democratic Progressive Party, which seeks full independence from China, could gain seats. "The Chinese have indicated they will do something around the time of the Taiwan elections," one Pentagon official said. "We don't know what it is." In March 1996, China conducted war games near Taiwan that included short-range missile test firings near Taiwan in what U.S. officials said was an attempt to intimidate Taiwan weeks before its first presidential elections.China rarely, if ever, makes public information about its strategic nuclear weapons programs, which have been undergoing a steady modernization from older, liquid- fuel missiles to highly accurate mobile ICBMs. Besides the DF-31, China is building a missile with a range of up to 8,000 miles that is known as the DF-41. It also is working on conventional and nuclear cruise missiles. Concern over the timing of the upcoming DF-31 flight test was prompted by China's past use of strategic missile developments and flight tests to send political signals..A CIA report from earlier this year said 13 of China's 18 long-range nuclear missiles were targeted on the United States. The report contradicted Mr. Clinton's often-used phrase there are no nuclear missiles aimed at the United States. During the July summit, China announced it would no longer point its missiles at the United States, although U.S. intelligence agencies have yet to verify this.."

The Economist 11/7-13/98 ".JOURNALISTS are used to being treated with contempt by politicians, but not in Taiwan. A foreign journalist arriving for an interview with the mayor of Kaohsiung, an industrial city in the south, is greeted by cameramen from the national television news, local reporters and the mayor's protocol officer and photographers. When the interview is over, the mayor presents the plaque of the city, and the photographers and television cameramen record the handshakes. The same ritual is repeated at a dozen other government interviews. What makes the foreign press so special is that it provides Taiwan with an international voice. Deprived of diplomatic recognition by everyone who matters, Taiwan is forced instead to court the media and spend tens of millions of dollars a year on advertising, lobbying and public relations.."

Agence France Presse 10/6/08 Beijing "China on Tuesday slammed tentative plans for Japan and the United States to develop a theater missile defense (TMD) program, denouncing some of the clauses in a related U.S. defense spending bill as "anti-China." "China hopes that the government of the United States will take effective measures to prevent the anti-China clauses from becoming law," Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao told a news briefing in Beijing. The United States and Japan issued a joint statement in New York on Sept. 20 apparently agreeing to push the TMD system after North Korea launched a rocket on Aug. 31 that over flew part of Japan.."If this act becomes law, it will create obstacles to the improvement and development of Sino-U.S. relations, and will also be detrimental to the security and stability of Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific region," Zhu said. "The Chinese side hereby expresses a deep concern and strong opposition to this," he said. Zhu also called for the United States to stop selling arms to Taiwan, an intention which was also reaffirmed in the defense bill.."

Associated Press 1/12/99 Laura Myers ".A top Chinese diplomat warned the Clinton administration Tuesday against working with Japan or Taiwan on anti-missile defense systems, suggesting that Beijing might build more powerful missiles in response. "This would have a negative impact on regional and global stability,'' said Sha Zukang, director general of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's arms control and disarmament division..While the Clinton administration sells conventional arms to Taiwan, which China considers a renegade province, the United States is not helping the island develop a missile defense system. Some members of Congress have long favored the idea, however. .."

Associated Press 1/21/99 Charles Hutzler ".China criticized a U.S. plan to deploy an anti- missile defense system as destabilizing Thursday, and urged Washington not to sell missile defenses to rival Taiwan. ."

Washington Times 1/26/99 Bill Gertz ".China's army conducted a military exercise last month with simulated missile firings against Taiwan and also for the first time conducted mock attacks on U.S. troops in the region, according to Pentagon intelligence officials. The exercise began in late November and ended in early December as road-mobile CSS-5 medium-range missiles maneuvered along China's coast, said officials familiar with a Dec. 2 Defense Intelligence Agency report on the exercise. Disclosure of the Chinese exercise comes as officials in the Clinton administration said efforts are under way to soften the conclusions of a congressionally mandated report on missile defenses and missile threats in Asia, including new details on the rapidly growing Chinese missile arsenal. According to sensitive intelligence gathered by U.S. satellites, aircraft and ships that monitored the Chinese exercise, People's Liberation Army units, including those equipped with intermediate-range CSS-5s and silo- housed CSS-2 missile units practiced firing missiles at Taiwan.."

AP 2/5/99 ". China will build a $4 million sports stadium for St. Lucia as a reward for breaking diplomatic ties with Taiwan, the Caribbean country's government said Friday. Foreign Minister George Odlum said the Chinese had also expressed interest in investing in offshore banking services on the island. St. Lucia broke ties with China's rival, Taiwan, 17 months ago. Prime Minister Kenny Anthony is currently on a trip to China. China sees Taiwan as a renegade province and has tried to deny it international recognition by courting its political allies.."

Reuters 2/8/99 ".The United States told the Macedonian government it should have consulted the international community more widely before opening diplomatic relations with Taiwan, the Macedonian premier said on Friday. But the United States did not suggest Macedonia go back on last month's decision, which could complicate attempts to extend the mandate for a U.N. peace force in the Balkan state, Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski told a news conference.China has taken the Macedonian government's decision badly and the Chinese ambassador in Skopje was quoted as saying his country may reconsider its position on UNPREDEP, the U.N. Preventive Deployment force in Macedonia. Beijing has warned other countries again forging ties with Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province subject to eventual union with the mainland. The two split after a civil war in 1949.."

DoD News Brief 2/11/99 Captain Doubleday ".QUESTION:Could you comment on whether the department is concerned about Chinese missiles that are apparently pointed at Taiwan? QUESTION:I think there are some Taiwanese officials quoted today as saying that they understand there's at least 100 now staring at them from across the straits, and there may be plans to increase that by as much as 600. DOUBLEDAY:Well, we're aware of the growing deployment by the Chinese in recent years of missiles which have been placed near Taiwan. I think that the most recent public statements on this were made by CIA Director George Tenet when he testified recently up on the Hill. This, however, is not a new threat.It stretches back more than half a decade, and any kind of a report that indicates that there is a sudden deployment here are wrong. They actually have been deployed for, as I say, over the last five or six years... "

DoD News Brief 2/18/99 Captain Doubleday ".Q: Can you say anything about the theater missile defense report on Taiwan? Has that gone to the Hill yet? A: The theater missile defense report has gone to the Hill. We're talking to people up on the Hill about the report and about briefings that might be offered to both staff and Members if they desire. We haven't scheduled any, to my knowledge, yet, but we're certainly prepared to do that. That is a classified report. We are hoping that there will be an unclassified version at some stage, and when there is, we'll look forward to sharing it with you."

China News 2/3/99 ".The question of whether Taiwan will be covered under the Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system may soon be answered after the United States Department of Defense yesterday submitted a report on the proposed system to Congress. Although the report has not been made public, Hong Kong's Singtao Daily newspaper quoted Defense Department sources as saying: "Taiwan does not meet necessary conditions to enter TMD." The newspaper's source added that "Taiwan isn't even mentioned in the (US) report." But Taiwan's Central News Agency quoted a high-level Ministry of Foreign Affairs official as refuting the Hong Kong newspaper report. The official said the US had provided Taiwan officials with a brief of the report and it did cover issues related to the island. But he added that the Taiwanese government will not divulge the contents of the report until the US Congress makes an official decision on the matter. The Department of Defense report evaluates the feasibility of the participation of Taiwan, South Korea and Japan in TMD, a system intended to provide a defensive umbrella against missile attack on Asia-Pacific countries. . He also hinted that China is ready to adopt a missile export management system in exchange for US refusal to supply Taiwan with TMD-related technology. .."

Reuters 2/10/99 ".Taiwan intelligence has confirmed that rival China has deployed more than 100 ballistic missiles that could be fired at the island, Taiwan's defense ministry said Wednesday. ``Based on current information obtained by our ministry, the Chinese communists indeed have more than 100 M-class missiles in storage that could target Taiwan,'' the ministry said in a statement.."

New York Times 2/12/99 Jane Perlez ".Instead of showing signs of progress in its policy of "constructive engagement" with China, the administration is facing a squall of China-bashing in Congress. Even U.S. business, a constituency that the administration's China policy has particularly tried to assist and the loudest advocate of closer ties, is complaining about Beijing's new restrictions on foreign investment. Stung by a bipartisan congressional inquiry's findings that China stole sensitive U.S. military technology, administration officials say they are warily waiting for even more explosive details expected to be announced in March in a declassified report by the congressmen who headed the inquiry..the Pentagon would report that in the early 1990s China had 60 missiles pointed at Taiwan but that since 1995 that number has more than doubled. In three years the Chinese are expected to have 800 missiles deployed on their side of the strait.. At the top of the list is the administration's proposal, which the Chinese have vehemently criticized, to push forward plans for developing a theater missile defense system with Japan, South Korea and possibly Taiwan. The system, which is still in the design stage, has been promoted with renewed urgency by the administration since the surprise firing by North Korea of a missile that flew over Japan and into the Pacific in August.."

Aviation Week & Space Technology 2/16/99 Freeper RR ".The Defense Dept. is forming a Space Launch Monitoring Div. with a cadre dedicated to making sure sensitive technology doesn't leak when U.S.-built satellites are launched from China.. A select House committee chaired by Christopher Cox (R-Calif.) made the recommendations, but its report had still not been declassified late last week. However, the White House response, most of which is unclassified, says the government will establish end-to-end monitoring of launch campaigns (and failure investigations) and vacuum up all documents authorized for release to China and distribute them to the Defense, State and Commerce Depts. and CIA. "To assist," the report says, "State and DoD are moving toward a system with industry by which the two departments will have intrusive, on-line access to all controlled technical data." .Ever concerned about alienating Chinese military officials, the Pentagon is playing down reports that Beijing is increasing the number of short-range ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan.."

Washington Post 2/26/99 Thomas Lippman "...China is engaged in an intense buildup of ballistic and cruise missile forces that will give it an "overwhelming advantage" over Taiwan by 2005, the Pentagon reported to Congress yesterday. Concentrated in eastern and southern China, these missiles "pose a serious threat to non-hardened military targets, [command and control] nodes and Taiwan's military infrastructure," according to the Pentagon assessment. These were among key findings in an assessment of the military balance in the Taiwan Strait area ordered by Congress. The report was due at the beginning of February but was held up until yesterday by arguments between the Pentagon and the State Department about what it should say, according to several sources.... According to Sen. Frank H. Murkowski (R-Alaska), a classified version of the Pentagon military assessment "examines the feasibility" of developing anti-missile defenses to protect Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. China is opposed to any effort to develop anti-missile capability in the region, especially on Taiwan, which according to Beijing is not an independent country and should not be contemplating military resistance to Beijing... Carl Ford, a former Defense Department official now acting as a consultant to Taiwan, called the report "amazingly straightforward, given the pressures in the administration to avoid provoking the People's Republic of China any more than they need to." ..."

Washington Times 2/26/99 Bill Gertz "...China's buildup of new missiles and other high-technology weapons in areas near Taiwan is shifting the balance of power in favor of Beijing, according to a Pentagon report released Thursday by Congress...Defense officials familiar with an earlier Pentagon report said the Chinese short-range missile force of M-9s and M-11s will grow from about 150 this year to 650 by 2005, and most will be deployed in areas near Taiwan. "In an armed conflict with Taiwan, China's short-range ballistic missiles likely would target air defense installations, naval bases, [command and control] nodes and logistics facilities," Thursday's report said. Development of cruise missiles similar to the U.S. Tomahawk is a high priority for the Chinese and is being boosted by acquisition of cruise-missile technology from Russia, the report said. The PLA will continue to field large numbers of increasingly accurate short-range ballistic missiles and introduce land-attack cruise missiles into its inventory," the report stated. Taiwan, meanwhile, is seeking a "qualitative edge over Beijing" by 2005 with purchases of new fighter jets, warships and air-defense systems, the report said..."

AP 2/28/99 "...Stymied in its attempts to acquire modern submarines, Taiwan's navy seeks to buy advanced U.S. Aegis warships to improve defenses against rival China, newspapers reported Sunday. Taiwan has asked to purchase an unspecified number of the ships, which boast highly advanced guided missile technology, the Liberty Times daily reported, quoting unidentified high-level military sources. That follows fruitless attempts to buy submarines and substantial improvements in Taiwan's antisubmarine warfare defense capabilities that reduce the need for Taiwan to obtain new submarines, the paper said. Two Aegis warships positioned at either end of Taiwan could substantially boost the island's ability to detect and shoot down Chinese missiles, the Liberty Times said China has an estimated 200 ballistic missiles targeted at Taiwan, and is reportedly purchasing Russian Sovremenny-class destroyers carrying SS-22 ``Sunburn'' cruise missiles, which naval experts say pose an even greater threat to Taiwan...."

Kanwa news 2/18/99 Yihong Zhang Freeper Jolly "...After the crisis in the Taiwan Strait in 1996, China further realized the importance and urgency of resolving the Taiwan issue through military struggle. Then it immediately made an obvious but more focused adjustment in the development of military equipment, the purchase of weapons from foreign countries, and the other arrangements. The Chinese strategic thinking in the development of weapons and equipment in recent years reflects the following three levels of deterrence. First of all, the first level of deterrence is the direct threat to Taiwan...The second level of deterrence is intended for the prevention of US involvement through the import of the Modern-class destroyers suitable for the attack on the aircraft carrier fleet, the development of the long-range cruise missiles, and the expedition in the development of the new ICBMs and the nuclear attack submarines. The third level of deterrence is directed at the ambiguous attitude that Japan may show in case of any conflict that happens in the Taiwan Strait, including providing part of the logistic support to the US army. The specific manifestation of this level of deterrence is increased operations of the Chinese navy and air force in the South China Sea, including having more J8D in-flight refueling fighter planes and more upgraded Ming-class submarines, establishing more bridgeheads and support bases on the sea, and entering into an ever more extensive area of the sea...."

2/25/99 AP "…China lashed back at Macedonia for establishing ties with Taiwan on Thursday, vetoing a Security Council resolution that would have kept U.N. peacekeepers in the strategic Balkan country for another six months. Russian Ambassador Sergey Lavrov abstained from the vote, saying Moscow's amendments had not been taken into consideration. China's veto was a major blow to the United Nations, which has held up the Macedonia mission as a model of preventative peacekeeping. The U.N. Preventative Deployment Force was dispatched to Macedonia in 1992 during the Bosnian war to prevent the spread of the ethnic conflict…."

Reuters 2/22/99 "... With the deadline drawing near for renewal of U.N. troops in Macedonia, diplomats fear China will make good on its threat to veto the operation because of Skopje's new relations with Taiwan. France is hoping that Macedonia will review the issue before Feb. 28, maintaining economic relations but not recognizing Taipei as a separate state, Macedonia's state radio said.... It was deployed in 1995 to monitor borders and deter the spread of fighting to Macedonia from Bosnia and other parts of the former Yugoslavia. Macedonia also provides logistical support for European civilian monitors that were in Kosovo and is the main base for a NATO extraction force for the monitors....Macedonia and Taiwan announced new diplomatic relations last month, provoking an immediate protest from China, which considers Taiwan a renegade province with no right to its own international relations...."

Business Week 3/1/99 Stan Crock Joyce Baranthan "...The revelation that China is building up its missile arsenal across the Taiwan Strait from Taipei seemed to confirm every Sinophobe's worst fear: A modernized People's Liberation Army, packing stolen high-tech weapons technology, was finally flexing its muscles. The reality is far more complex. Despite that menacing array of missiles, China's army, navy, and air force are mainly ill-equipped and badly trained. Yet the Chinese are more committed than ever to building a military their neighbors must fear and respect..... But China's military ambitions cannot be discounted. Now that Beijing has forced the PLA to divest its business interests, the generals have more time to overhaul their commands. The army has already built up a respectable capacity in the short-range conventional missiles needed to attack Taiwan. The Defense Ministry has bought four modern submarines and is haggling over two missile-firing destroyers from Russia, which could be the start of a long-term plan to build a working on such Buck Rogers stuff as anti-satellite laser weapons. ''This is an area where it can at least reach rough parity,'' says one China watcher. Clinton Administration officials admit China's buildup bears watching. The U.S. itself may not be threatened anytime soon. But over the long haul, the PLA's modernization could drastically alter the balance of power in Asia...."

London financial Times 2/26/99 James Kynge "…Beijing made a veiled threat yesterday to transfer missile technology to unspecified third countries if the US persisted with a controversial plan to provide a missile defence shield for some of China's neighbours, including Taiwan. China also launched a strong verbal attack on the US, saying that Washington's decision this week to block the sale of a satellite to a Chinese-led corporation would have a negative effect on trade and economic co-operation. Beijing's reaction to the possibility that Taiwan, China's rival since 1949, may be included in a US-backed Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) system has been uncompromising. Officials said a TMD shield for Taiwan, Japan and South Korea would be seen as the start of a cold war policy of containment against China by the US, and could accelerate the regional arms build-up…."

Christian Science Monitor 3/4/99 Ann Scott Tyson "…By far the most sensitive issue for debate - and one that carries the greatest risk of inciting a US-China conflict - is whether the United States should include Taiwan under a missile-defense umbrella. China, determined to reunify with the island it considers a renegade province, bitterly opposes such a US move… Most immediately, China's military buildup is aimed at securing its sovereignty claims in a distinct zone of influence that includes Taiwan and the South China Sea. In the long run, however, it is designed to establish China as the Asian superpower - at the expense of the United States, experts say…. Beijing's military modernization - and especially the buildup and development of ballistic and cruise missiles able to strike Taiwan - has recently brought this conflict over strategic visions into sharp relief. Experts agree that China is engaged in a long-term effort to upgrade the quality and numbers of its ballistic and cruise missiles, partly in an effort to intimidate pro-independence forces on the island of Taiwan….But debate is raging in the US foreign-policy community - specifically between the State Department and Pentagon - over whether embracing Taiwan with TMD would ultimately hurt or help US interests. One view maintains that TMD for Taiwan would push China to accelerate its missile build-up, halt its cooperation with the US in weapons nonproliferation, and spur an arms race… "

Reuters 3/4/99 Alice Hung "…`It's no secret the defence budget revealed by the Chinese communists only reflects part of their actual spending so as to avoid international criticism,'' said the ministry official, who asked not to be identified by name. ``Based on our long-term observations, they normally spend three times as much,'' the official said. (note: which would be 37.8 billion US) Analysts say a top priority of China's defence spending is building the capacity to use force to take Taiwan, which it has regarded as a renegade province it became estranged from the mainland at the end of a civil war in 1949…."

Reuters 3/5/99 "…A senior Chinese official warned the United States Friday that offering to shelter Taiwan under a missile defense umbrella would be the "last straw'' and lead to serious consequences. The official, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity, said such a move would mean a direct U.S. military presence in Taiwan and encourage independence for the Nationalist-ruled island. He said the Theater Missile Defense plan amounted to missile proliferation since the technologies were related…. The official lashed out at reports from the United States that China was massing ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan. Some U.S. politicians have said the reported build-up justified offering Taiwan a missile defense umbrella. "Whether we should deploy missiles on our own territory is our own business,'' the official said, warning Washington to keep its "hands off.'' Since Japan already has rockets, TMD would give it "both the spear and the shield,'' the official said. It would "enhance military cooperation between Japan and the United States and we don't like it,'' he added…."

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST 3/5/99 Jason Blatt "…Taiwanese authorities yesterday were reported to have arrested three mainland spies who tried to sneak on to the island in a fishing boat. The three were caught bringing in significant quantities of explosives and were being held in a detention centre for illegal immigrants pending an investigation, the China Times Express said. Its report came a day after Justice Minister Yeh Chin-fong confirmed the recent arrest of two men, including a Hong Kong resident, in connection with a separate case involving alleged acts of espionage directed against Taiwan's armed forces…."

Drudge Report 3/7/99 "…China renewed its warnings to the U.S. Sunday over the possible development of a U.S. missile defense system in Asia, suggesting that the inclusion of Taiwan in the project would constitute an infringement of China's sovereignty. Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan: "If some people intend to include Taiwan under theater missile defense, that would amount to an encroachment on China's sovereignty and territorial integrity." He added that would prompt a ``strong reaction" from the Chinese government and the people, reports Monday's FINANCIAL TIMES…."

Kyodo News Service 3/13/99 "…Former Chinese Ambassador to Japan Xu Dunxin has warned against a visit to Japan by Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui, a Taiwanese newspaper reported Saturday. Such a visit ''would invite stronger consequences than those after Lee's visit to the United States,'' the United Daily News quoted Xu as saying.

China protested Lee's unofficial 1995 visit to the U.S. to make a speech at Cornell University, with cross-straits relations souring after the landmark visit. Following the trip, Beijing conducted military exercises targeted at Taiwan and called off a high-level meeting between officials from cross-straits exchange organizations…."

Reuters 3/24/99 "…Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Jesse Helms, a North Carolina Republican, and Sen. Robert Torricelli, a New Jersey Democrat, teamed up to sponsor the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act. The bill, introduced in a growing congressional climate of hostility toward China amid spying charges, would authorize the sale to Taiwan of a broad array of defense items, including missile defense systems and advanced air-to-air missiles. It also seeks to strengthen the process for defense sales to Taiwan, Helms said, requiring the president to report to Congress annually on Taiwan's defense requests and to justify any rejections of arms sales to Taiwan…."

CAN 3/29/99 "…Chen, who came to New York to attend celebrations marking the 102 birthday of former ROC first lady Madame Chiang Kai-shek, said high-level dialogue between the Republic of China and the United States has proceeded smoothly. Nevertheless, Chen said a bilateral agreement between the two sides has banned him from divulging any details about the such meetings, including the persons involved, the venue, the date and the content of their talks. Chen flew back to his Washington office Monday afternoon…."


China News 3/30/99 "…President Lee Teng-hui has called for a halt to the prolonged debates on issues related to Taiwan's plan to take part in the US-initiated Theater Missile Defense (TMD) project because the debate has increased tension in Taipei's relations with Washington and Beijing, government sources said yesterday The sources told the United Daily News that Washington had grown impatient with the extensive debate in Taipei on the pros and cons of its participation in the project, even though the project is still up in the air Taiwan authorities were also troubled by repeated warnings from Beijing that Taiwan's participation in the project, if realized, would have serious consequences on cross-strait relations…"

Christian Science Monitor 4/7/99 Lorna Hahn "The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979 was passed after the Carter administration switched the official US recognition from Taipei to Beijing. The act allows the US to continue economic and cultural relations with Taiwan, and permits the US to sell Taiwan enough weapons to defend itself. Yet China is demanding that the US deny Taiwan additional missile defenses, thus leaving it vulnerable to the newly deployed ballistic missiles along China's southern coast. In effect, China is asking the US government to violate the TRA. This is after China has enhanced its own missile capabilities through the alleged theft of American technology and demonstrated its willingness to use missiles to intimidate Taiwan in March 1996. The US should not only refuse to bow to these latest Chinese demands, it should instead ask China to recognize that the TRA is American law - which the US government is obliged to obey - if it wants the US to continue to recognize and follow its "one China" policy."

NewsMax 4/13/99 "...Before Zhu left Washington for a 10-day tour of America, he and Bill Clinton held a joint press conference, during which a chilling verbal exchange took place -- one which, for unknown reasons, was either not mentioned at all in press reports or mentioned only in passing. When Zhu was asked what China intended to do about Taiwan, he reminded us that Abraham Lincoln "resorted to the use of force and fought a war for that, for maintaining the unity of the United States." Clinton countered that the comparison was invalid. One does not have to be a Confucian scholar to understand that Zhu threw down the gauntlet. He told us, in effect, that Taiwan belongs to China and will be retaken -- by war, if necessary. Clinton lamely contested the "right" of China to do that. t this moment, China is placing missile batteries opposite Taiwan. When -- not if -- the assault begins, America cannot fulfill its commitment to defend Taiwan without putting the American mainland in jeopardy. Chinese missiles, loaded with multiple nuclear warheads, can now reach Los Angeles and San Francisco, thanks to the critical technology China stole from us due to sloppy security practices and bought from us due to corrupt trade policies...."

STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update 4/13/99 "...A meeting among the defense ministers of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and China scheduled for April 14-15 has been postponed. The Tass news agency cited Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev as emphasizing that the reason for the postponement was not political. Instead, Sergeyev said the meeting was delayed because the Kazakh minister was sick and the Chinese minister could not make it due to "emerging circumstances." What these emerging circumstances are was not specified, and it raises the intriguing question of what could be happening at precisely this time that is important enough to keep the Defense Minister from this meeting.....There are several possible emerging circumstances in China. Following Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji's comment in Washington last week that China has "never undertaken to renounce the use of force" in pursuing reunification with Taiwan, the Taiwan Defense Ministry has vowed to go ahead with defense exercises beginning later this month. Han Kuang 15 will be the first live-fire defense exercise to be held by Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait and on Jinmen Island (just a few miles off the Chinese coast) since the 1995-96 Chinese launch of a ballistic missile into the Taiwanese shipping lanes. Han Kuang 15 is scheduled for June, but smaller live-fire exercises will be held on Penghu Island and Jinmen Island in April and May. During the 1995-96 escalation of tensions, the U.S. responded by sending two carrier groups in to the area. However, due to the rotation of forces and the ongoing NATO campaign in Yugoslavia, the U.S. does not have a carrier group on station in Asia at this time. Were tensions to rise again, the nearest available carrier would be the USS Carl Vinson, currently en route from Tasmania and due in Bremerton, Washington, on May 6. However, as these exercises are still some time off, this is not likely the immediate reason for the postponement of the Chinese Defense Minister's trip to Moscow. ...."

Christian Science Monitor 4/8/99 Cameron Barr Freeper Stand Watch Listen "...EXCERPTS "Although Chinese leaders have denied a buildup, media reports citing intelligence sources have said that China is increasing the number of missiles it deploys near Taiwan. Military analysts question whether China has the strength to prevail in an invasion of Taiwan, but its missiles provide a constant source of political leverage over an island that must continually worry about Chinese intentions as it ponders whether to declare outright independence from China. A missile defense system would weaken Chinese leverage...."

www.insidechina.com /(Reuters) 4/21/99 Freeper Revel "…Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji ended his North American visit on a blunt note on Tuesday, rebuking pro-Taiwan independence protesters and warning China has never ruled out force to regain its breakaway province. …"

Washington Times 4/23/99Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough Freeper Stand Watch Listen "...EXCERPTS "The Clinton administration is continuing to deny vital defensive weapons to Taiwan. An inter-agency group agreed this week to reject a request from the island nation for U.S. military equipment needed to defend against China's People's Liberation Army. U.S. government officials tell us the White House and State Department, fearful of upsetting the Chinese government, are opposing the sale of a long-range phased-array radar that could provide early warning of Chinese missile attacks. The radar is an urgent need because China is deploying up to 650 M-11 and M-9 short-range missiles opposite Taiwan over the next six years, according to a recent report by the Defense Intelligence Agency. The pro-China officials fear the radar will be used for Taiwan's missile defenses, systems which Beijing vehemently opposes."..."

Washington Times 4/23/99 Bill Gertz Rowan Scarborough "...The Clinton administration is continuing to deny vital defensive weapons to Taiwan. An inter-agency group agreed this week to reject a request from the island nation for U.S. military equipment needed to defend against China's People's Liberation Army. U.S. government officials tell us the White House and State Department, fearful of upsetting the Chinese government, are opposing the sale of a long-range phased-array radar that could provide early warning of Chinese missile attacks. The radar is an urgent need because China is deploying up to 650 M-11 and M-9 short-range missiles opposite Taiwan over the next six years, according to a recent report by the Defense Intelligence Agency. The pro-China officials fear the radar will be used for Taiwan's missile defenses, systems which Beijing vehemently opposes. "This long-range radar was a high priority of the Taiwanese and it doesn't have anything to do with offensive arms," said one official critical of the decision. "It would give 21 million people five minutes to duck and run."..."

Washington Times 4/28/99 Richard D. Fisher "...A Pentagon report to Congress in February states, "Taiwan's most significant vulnerability is its limited capacity to defend against the growing arsenal of Chinese ballistic missiles." But if some administration officials get their way in arms talks with Taiwan this week, Taipei will be denied two radar systems that could enhance its future capability to defend against those same Chinese missiles. According to media reports the Pentagon has estimated that by 2005 China could deploy up to 650 short-range ballistic missiles against Taiwan. One such missile, the 360-mile range DF-15, was fired near Taiwan 10 times in July 1995 and March 1996 to intimidate Taiwan's people and its political leaders. In 1996 the DF-15 was an effective but not too accurate missile. In the future, the DF-15 could be improved with guidance systems that use signals from American or Russian navigation satellites to achieve accuracy sufficient to target specific buildings in cities or on military bases.... American support for Taiwan is strongly implied by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), which states that the United States will "consider an effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means . . . of grave concern to the United States." The TRA also stipulates that the United States will "provide Taiwan arms of a defensive character." The TRA turned 20 on April 10, and in a letter issued April 14 President Clinton credited the TRA with being "instrumental . . . in preserving peace and stability in Asia." Mr. Clinton is correct. But as seen so many times before, his administration's actions belie his rhetoric. In arms talks with Taiwan this week it is reported that officials in the State Department and the White House are opposing the sale of two radar systems to Taiwan. These radar area phased-array system that would enhance the capability of U.S. Patriot anti-tactical ballistic missiles that Taiwan has already purchased, and an AEGIS naval phased-array radar that Taiwan would fit to a destroyer-sized ship. These radars are utterly defensive weapons and thus consistent with the TRA. Should the administration refuse the sale of radar that Taiwan has requested, the most likely reason will be to avoid angering China. Such a decision would mark an American capitulation to China's loud and threatening diplomatic campaign this year against U.S. missile defense plans in Asia. To do so would also advance two key Chinese ambitions: to weaken Taiwan and to weaken the U.S. alliance system in Asia...."

Agence France Presse 4/28/99 "....China has set up an exercise ground which is an exact replica of rival Taiwan's largest military airport to stage mock invasion exercises, a military analyst warned Wednesday. "The maneuver's venue was set up two years ago in China's northwestern province of Gansu," Professor Chung Chien of National Tsing Hwa University, told AFP. "The military has been keeping an eye on the setup for a while," said Chung, also a professor with Taiwan's War College and Armed Forces University. Paratroopers from the People's Liberation Army (PLA), coupled with other combat units, had used the exercise ground, which is a full-size duplicate of Chingchuankang Airport in central Taiwan, in several drills, he said. Defense ministry spokesman Kung Fan-ding told reporters that he was was "not at all surprised to read such reports now that Beijing has refused to renounce the use of force" in solving its disputes with Taiwan. China has pledged to attack Taiwan should the island declare formal independence from the "motherland." Taiwan and the mainland were split in 1949 at the end of a civil war. "The military has adopted counter-measures against any possible action or sabotage the Chinese communist forces could launch," Kung said. ...."

Reuters 4/30/99 "...The United States plans to sell an early-warning radar system to Taiwan that would enable it to monitor the launch of Chinese ballistic missiles or bomber jets, the New York Times reported Friday. Beijing, which views Taiwan as a rogue province, has already protested the move, the newspaper said. Some Clinton administration officials have also opposed the plan on the grounds that it could worsen already prickly relations between China and the United States, the newspaper reported.....The radar system, which could be worth hundreds of millions dollars to the U.S defense industry, would provide Taiwan with several minutes' warning in the event of a launch of ballistic missiles on the mainland, the newspaper said...... ``We have made serious representations with the U.S. side,'' Yu said. ``We say that any arms sales to Taiwan by any country in the world constitutes an infringement on Chinese sovereignty, an interference in our internal affairs.'' ....'

Reuters 4/30/99 C.C. Yao Freeper crypt2k "..."More than 500 soldiers deployed heavy artillery and M60A3 tanks on a beach at Penghu, a Taiwan-held island of fishermen and farmers midway between Taiwan and the mainland, to test their readiness to fend off a maritime landing force." ..."

Chinatimes 5/5/99 AFP "...Three mainland Chinese have been arrested for spying on a Taiwan air base which houses a newly formed wing of F-16 fighters, officials and newspapers said Tuesday. Premier Vincent Siew told shocked legislators there was firm evidence against the three. The three Chinese, who were ostensibly in the island visiting relatives, were taken into custody on April 28 by the military, the United Daily News quoted intelligence sources as saying. "The three suspects were likely to gather information on training and deployment of the US-made F-16 fighters," the paper said. They were discovered taking pictures while illegally working for an construction project at the air base at Hualien in eastern Taiwan, it said. Air force Major General Lai Chin-chun said the three suspects were being questioned and security had been stepped up around the base...."

Reuters 5/9/99 Jeffrey Parker "...An explosion of anti-western anger across urban China has set off internal alarm bells in Taiwan, which, along with Tibet, lies at the heart of Beijing's opposition to NATO's air attacks on Yugoslavia. Taiwan media gave top coverage to the U.S.-led alliance's Friday bombing of China's Belgrade embassy, which NATO has called a ``tragic mistake'' but which left four Chinese dead, and the near-rioting it sparked in Beijing and many other Chinese cities. Taiwan commentators said China's state-controlled media were playing with fire by whipping up nationalist, anti-western feelings that they said encouraged mobs of irate students to attack U.S. and other western diplomatic outposts....``If mainland authorities aren't careful, these sentiments could ultimately end up turning against them,'' Taipei's China Post said in an editorial...."

The Nation (Thailand) 5/13/99 "....Among the many acute policy differences between the United States and China, none has more potential for serious trouble than the complex issue of whether certain Asian nations need theatre missile defence systems, known as TMDs....More provocative is talk of helping Taiwan acquire one. ''That will completely disrupt the current world situation and instead a new cold war will appear,'' warns Wang Daohan, China's senior negotiator with Taiwan. Beijing fears that, protected from possible Chinese missile attack, Taiwan might declare independence. Premier Zhu Rongji has said that the provision of such technology would be an interference in Chinese domestic affairs. Others have warned that China might then upgrade its offensive capability, perhaps by adding multiple war heads to its missiles launching a dangerous Asian arms race....."

Chinatimes 5/13/99 AFP "...China may launch an "information war", including the use of computer viruses to paralyse command systems, before an invasion of Taiwan, a top military leader warned Wednesday. "A massive information attack may lead to a chaos here," Chief of the General Staff General Tang Yao-ming told a seminar. "And when that happens, it would be the occasion for the enemy to attack Taiwan." Taiwan's energy, transportation and banking systems could be China's targets in staging an information war, Tang said...."

Chinatimes 5/13/99 AFP "...Taiwan Wednesday denied reports it would allow visits by a United Nations arms inspection group but reiterated its official line that it does not make chemical weapons. "Now that the Republic of China (Taiwan) is not a signatory to the UN Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) it cannot possibly agree to such inspection," the defense ministry said in a statement. "Yet as a member of the international community, we will continue to abide by the CWC rules. "We will by no means manufacture and nor will we own chemical weapons." The ministry conceded efforts have been devoted to the manufacturing of "protection gear" for use in nuclear and biochemical warfare and to the conduct of training programs...."

WorldNetDaily 5/17/99 J R Nyquist "... China, too, has been engaged in a serious buildup of forces opposite Taiwan. There is also China's invasion of the Spratly Islands, which are located more than 800 miles from China yet 140 miles from the Philippines...As it happens, Taiwan's lifeline runs near to the Spratlys. On Jan.12 of this year, Taiwan President Lee, taking note of Beijing's obvious attempts to encircle his small island country, called on his fellow citizens "to raise their vigilance against the military threat from China." Four days earlier, on Jan. 8, Chinese President Jiang Zemin laid out the mission of the People's Liberation Army in a speech: "We must resolutely safeguard the unity of the motherland and the nation's territorial integrity." Unity, of course, is the war cry of the Communist Chinese against the Nationalist Chinese on Taiwan. President Jiang also warned that the Chinese People's Liberation Army should prepare itself for two things: nuclear war and internal uprisings. Soon thereafter, in mid January, China conducted bomber and missile exercises in which Chinese forces practiced targeting American troops in the Far East. The Chinese have also announced radical changes in military doctrine. The Chinese Air Force was placed in "offensive mode" in January, and China's army doctrine was altered to one of global war-fighting...."

www.scmp.com 5/18/99 AFP "...Taiwan's military authorities have approved plans to expand the island's largest naval base to pave the way for the acquisition of American-built Aegis destroyers, it was reported yesterday. The expansion plans for Tsoying harbour would cost an estimated NT$30 billion (HK$6.9 billion) the Independence Evening Post said...."

China Times 5/19/99 AFP "...President Lee Teng-hui on Tuesday showed off the "muscle" of Taiwan's revamped defences on islands close to the Chinese mainland. Dozens of US-made M60-A3 tanks, TOW anti-tank missiles, AH-1W attack helicopters, armoured personnel vehicles, rockets and cannons for an armored brigade were on display after recent military drills on islands in the Taiwan Strait. "I have been deeply impressed by the aviation and armored infantry brigades in the inspections," Lee said at the Wuteh base on Pengu. "Today's review of weaponry and personnel once more shows the muscle of the newly formed combined brigades," he added. Taiwan, which always has one eye on any hint of a threat from China's huge military, has staged a sweeping restructuring of its armed forces...."

Arizona Republic 5/16/99 Gary Weiand Freeper Stand Watch Listen "...That statement assumes that China means to dominate the East. Is that Western bias speaking, or can we be morally certain that China is an imperial, expansionist state? We have been told that Chinese leaders regard themselves as inheritors of a temporarily dispossessed Middle Kingdom that naturally dominates Asia. If so, then China, like Japan in 1941, aims to push us back to California. ...China argues that Taiwan is as much a part of the nation as its mainland and that reunification is an internal affair, but then goes on to add that America has no stake in the matter. Both propositions are false...."

China Times 5/26/99 AFP "...Taiwan's China Airlines (CAL) plans to order several aircraft from US-based Boeing Co. for four billion US dollars as part of its expansion plans, the Economic Daily News reported Tuesday. The deal for the Boeing 777 passenger jets and Boeing 747 cargo planes is expected to be announced in June, the paper said, without specifying the number of aircraft involved....The expansion is part of CAL's preparation for an expected resumption of air links between Taiwan and mainland China in the next few years, he said...."

China Times 5/25/99 "...Beijing might use nuclear weapons against Taiwan, particularly its newly developed neutron bombs which can inflict heavy fatalities without causing much material damage, according to a US Congress report released on Monday...The report said that the neutron bomb packs more radiation, but has less explosive power, than a conventional nuclear device, which means it can cause heavy casualties while leaving infrastructure largely intact....Even now, the report went on, plans to deploy neutron bombs might be on Beijing's drawing board. Although Beijing has promised "no first strike" of nuclear weapons, this policy only applies to foreign states, which, according to Beijing, does not include Taiwan...."

Chinatimes 5/26/99 AFP "...The Philippines on Tuesday played down a row over its objections to a visit by Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui, saying it did not expect Taiwan to take any retaliatory action. Presidential spokesman Fernando Barican said he did not expect the issue to "force Taiwan to consider action against us. On the contrary, the Philippines is looking forward to enhanced relations with Taiwan." In Taipei Taiwan's parliament Tuesday asked the government to get tough with the Philippines...."

Chinatimes 5/28/99 "...Taiwan on Thursday staged a live-fire exercise on an island close to the Chinese mainland, as the nationalist government assessed the implications of China's growing nuclear capability. In an anti-landing drill at dawn, six companies of Taiwanese troops rained cannons, rockets and guns on a mock enemy trying to invade Kinmen (Quemoy), which at one point is just 3,000 meters (3,270 yards) from the Chinese city of Xiamen. The army said that for the first time US-made M60-A3 tanks were used in maneuvers...."

www.scmp.com 5/27/99 Reuters "...A US court ruling that China's status as a signatory to the Warsaw Convention does not automatically cover Taiwan threatens serious political and trade repercussions. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, ruling on the loss of an US$83,000 (HK$642,000) shipment of Taiwanese computer chips, said it found no precedent for assuming that US policy held Taiwan to be "party to any treaty signed by China". "We caution, however, that we do not independently determine the status of Taiwan. Instead, we merely recognise and defer to the [US] political departments' position that Taiwan is not bound by China's adherence to the Warsaw Convention," said the judges. Along with challenging China's diplomatic dominion over Taiwan, the ruling opens up a host of problems in burgeoning air cargo and passenger traffic between the US and Taiwan, lawyers said afterwards...."

5/27/99 AP Freeper Thanatos "...The Pentagon today recommended sale of 240 Hellfire missiles to Taiwan in a deal worth about $23 million. The proposed sale also includes spare parts and related equipment for the missiles, which Taiwan would use aboard two types of military helicopters. The missiles are fired from the air against targets on the ground...."

NewsMax.com 5/30/99 Inside Cover "...And what about the ever popular claim that there's no evidence the Chinese have actually implemented the high tech they got from us? Tell it to the Taiwanese. Even a cursory reading of the Cox Report (i.e., the "Overview") reveals that the Chinese stole guidance technology from advanced aircraft like the F-14, F-16 and even the F-117 Stealth fighter -- which, the report states, "is directly applicable to medium and short range PLA missiles, such as the CSS-6 (also known as the M-9)". The Cox report continues: "CSS-6 missiles were, for example, fired in the Taiwan Strait over Taiwan's main ports in the 1996 crisis and confrontation with the United States." What's worth noting here is that the CSS-6 (M-9) is nuclear capable, a fact which made U.S. defense experts extremely nervous when they saw that particular missile soaring over a Pacific Island we have a treaty obligation to defend...."

Reuters 6/1/99 Freeper Thanatos "...China on Tuesday demanded the US cancel plans to sell air-to-surface anti-tank weapons to Taiwan to avoid ''new damage'' to strained Sino-US ties. ''The Chinese side demands the US government abide by the three Sino-US joint communiques, especially the August 17 communique, and cancel the sale to prevent new damage to ties,'' ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said...."

Long Beach Press Telegram 6/4/99 Bill Hillburg "...Sources familiar with leasing plans for the closed Naval Shipyard said Thursday there are no Chinese ties to AMC Long Beach, the company that is the port's reported choice to reopen part of the base. This may clear the way for AMC to open a Long Beach shipyard that would employ up to 600 workers, including a number of former Naval Shipyard employees, on ship repair and barge-building projects. AMC, an affiliate of San Francisco-based Astoria Metals Corp., came under a cloud of suspicion on May 18 after port officials allegedly told several City Council members that the company was being financed by mainland China's Communist regime. The charge was hotly denied by John Pickering, president of AMC Long Beach, and other company officials. They said their $10 million in start-up capital was all coming either from U.S. sources or from Taiwan, island home of the pro-U.S. Republic of China. "We are not all tied up with the Chinese Communists," said Pickering, a retired Navy captain and the last commander of the Naval Shipyard, which shut down in 1997....."

Koenig's International News 6/10/99 Charles Smith "...According to Defense Secretary Perry, the U.S. contact for PLA General Ding was Barry Carter, Commerce Deputy Undersecretary of Export Administration. According to Federal Election Commission records, Barry Carter is a DNC donor and currently a Professor of Law at Georgetown University. In 1994, Carter worked at the Commerce Dept. under Ron Brown. Barry Carter exchanged correspondence with several major China-Gate players including PLA Lt. General Huai Guomo, PLA Major General Deng Yousheng, Ken Kay, a lobbyist for Sun Computers, and Eden Woon of the Washington State China Relations Council. The 1995 PLA list given to Carter is part of a series of letters between the Commerce Dept., various Chinese Army officers and anxious U.S. vendors. The 1995 list provided to Carter included "China YuanWang (Group)" and several other well know Chinese Army owned companies such as "NORINCO", "China National Nuclear", "China State Shipbuilding" and "China Aerospace." Carter also included his own personal touch to the list, by providing the phone, fax and address for his PLA contact in Beijing, "Lieutenant Colonel Wang Zhongchao", and his contact at the Chinese embassy in Washington, D.C., "Colonel Xu Cunyong." Carter provided the list of PLA companies and contacts to Eden Woon, donor to U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA), Executive Director of the Washington State China Relations Council (WSCRC) and Director of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce..... In December 1995, Eden Woon and the WSCRC hosted a delegation of Chinese Army representatives from PLA owned companies. Woon took them on a tour of the Washington state companies anxious to do business with the Chinese Army. The 1995 delegation to Washington state included "Feng Hui, Staff officer" of the COSTIND "Foreign Affairs Dep't." Feng Hui is better known as Major Feng Hui of the Chinese Army. Major Feng was accompanied by other officers from the PLA unit COSTIND, and a host of engineering specialists from various PLA owned companies, including "Chengdu Aircraft plant", the "Jiangnan Shipyard" and "No. 614 Institute", a PLA institute staffed by weapons experts. There is a clear reason why Major Feng trusted Eden Woon to help the Chinese Army do business in Seattle and beyond. Woon's radical views of U.S./Sino relations do not include a free Taiwan. In 1997, Woon and the Washington State China Relations Council sponsored a conference that included U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA). On October 14, 1997, at the close of the conference, the participants issued a report that states, "The U.S. should ensure that Taiwan understands that if conflicts arise (especially if apparently provoked by Taiwan), it cannot necessarily count on the U.S. coming to the rescue." ..."

Washington Times 3/9/97 William Triplett "......* Arms sales to Taiwan: Chinese diplomats tell their American counterparts that preventing American arms sales to Taiwan is their No. 1 objective with us. President Bush approved the sale of 150 F-16s to Taiwan in 1992 but no significant new arms sales to Taiwan have been permitted by President Clinton...."

6/16/99 AFP "….Taiwan intelligence authorities are investigating a computer company suspected of being infiltrated by mainland China, it was reported Tuesday. The National Security Council was alerted when a Taiwanese printed circuit board company operating in the mainland recently took control of a local computer firm listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, the state-run Central News Agency said. It said the Chinese firm was capitalized at only 100 million Taiwan dollars ($3.08 million), only one-tenth of that of the company it took over. "After a low-key probe, the council discovered the money was supplied by the Chinese authorities," the agency said…"

Salon 6/21/99 David Horowitz "... Nine months before the COSCO lease was sealed, a crisis had developed in the Taiwan Strait. Elections were being held in Taiwan and the communist regime, which claims sovereignty over Taiwan, was launching intermediate range ballistic missiles with blank warheads in the direction of the island, an act of blatant intimidation. The Clinton administration had interposed two aircraft carriers from the 7th Fleet ostensibly to remind the communists that Taiwan was an American ally. At that moment, an old Little Rock friend of Clinton's appeared in Washington with a $460,000 donation to the legal defense trust that Clinton had set up to defray his expenses in the Paula Jones sexual harassment case. The friend also brought a message from one of China's top officials that if the United States interfered in this matter, a missile attack against Los Angeles would become a possibility. The friend also brought his own broken-English personal message: "Any negative outcomes of the U.S. decision in the China issue will affect your administration position especially in the campaign year." The messenger was Charlie Trie, owner of the Fu Lin restaurant in Little Rock. Trie was also a member of the Four Seas triad, a billion-dollar Asian crime syndicate allied to Chinese military and intelligence agencies. Clinton's written reply to Trie's blackmail was addressed "Dear Charlie" and assured him and his communist bosses in Beijing that the interposition of the aircraft carriers was "not intended as a threat to the People's Republic of China," but as "a signal to both Taiwan and the PRC that the United States was concerned about maintaining stability in the ... region." ..."

Chinatimes 6/25/99 CAN "...Wu An-chai, vice chairman of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) warned Beijing on Thursday the stronger the military threat from mainland China, the more popular the call for Taiwan independence will be. "Prior to Beijing's missile threat in March 1996, only 9 percent of Taiwan's people preferred an overt breaking of relations with the mainland. After that incident, this group of people increased to 21 percent," he said..... Wu said that surveys show that more than 80 percent of Taiwan people prefer the maintaining of the status quo in cross-Taiwan Strait relations, and oppose immediate unification or immediate independence. However, the surveys also show that the popularity of Taiwan independence is closely related to Mainland China's military threat toward Taiwan, he said....."

http://www.insidechina.com/news.php3?id=75170 AFP 6/24/99 "...Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui said Thursday Taipei would join US theatre missile defensive (TMD) plans as long as Beijing's ballistic weapons were perceived as a threat. "It is unreasonable to ask us not to come up with self-defense counter-measures while we are gravely threatened," Lee said in meeting with Karen House, head of the Dow Jones group's international division. More than 100 Chinese ballistic missiles have been deployed along the southeast coast of China facing Taiwan, according to Taiwan's defense ministry. And media reports estimated that 600 more could be deployed in southeastern China over the next few years..."

International Herald Tribune 6/29/99 Philip Bowring "... Relations across the Taiwan Strait are improving, but the two sides are drifting further apart. That paradox may be apparent to Wang Daohan, head of China's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, who is due this year to become the most senior mainland official to visit here. Political and economic development on both sides have had consequences for prospects of eventual reunification that are different from those imagined when cross-strait commerce began in earnest in the late 1980s. The United States and others interested in maintaining good relations with both sides need to grasp the paradox. There is a variety of reasons for the current easing of tensions: Both sides still bear scars from the 1996 crisis, when U.S. ships were dispatched to the Taiwan Strait after China fired blank test missiles near Taiwan's waters to try to influence the result of its elections. There is a common economic interest in joining the World Trade Organization, which requires a stable U.S.-China-Taiwan relationship. Under U.S. pressure, Taiwan has moderated its efforts to secure international recognition of its de facto independence..... However, the movement toward closer de facto links has stalled. And almost no one in Taiwan now regards unification, even under the loosest form of the ''one country, two systems'' formula, as even a remote possibility over the next decade. The political reasons for this are obvious enough. On the mainland, political development has essentially frozen. In Taiwan, meanwhile, the democratic process has emerged more smoothly and rapidly than expected...."

Hong Kong Standard 7/2/99 AFP "...Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui has called for further domestic development of advanced weaponry despite ongoing efforts to arrange a landmark visit to Taipei by a top mainland envoy. ``Strong armed forces will be the guarantee of national development, and advanced weapons are key elements in reinforcing the military forces,'' Mr Lee told the military-run Chung-shan Institute of Science and Technology. Beijing has threatened to attack Taiwan should the island declare formal independence. ``Although some of the weapons could be acquired abroad, only by enhancing self-development capability can national security be ensured,'' he said...."

China Times 7/13/99 AFP "…Tang Shubei, executive vice-president of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS), told reporters here that Lee was "playing with fire" by saying Taiwan and China were on an equal footing. He said at the end of a three-day forum here on the reunification of Taiwan and China that such remarks would bring "disaster" to Taiwan…. China on Sunday denounced Lee's comments as "separatist malice" and declared Taiwan part of China whatever its leader might say. "There is only one China in the world and Taiwan is a part of it," said a Chinese Communist Party Central Committee spokesman…."

7/12/99 CAN "…Officials of the Republic of China Ministry of National Defense (MND) denied any knowledge on Monday of a reported F-5 fighter jet deal between Taiwan and the Philippines. According to an AFP dispatch from Manila, the Philippines is planning to acquire at least 40 F-5E fighter jets from Taiwan, at "a bargain price of US$1 each," as part of efforts to modernize its ill-equipped armed forces. To avoid interference from mainland China, the Philippines, which recognizes Beijing's "one China" policy, will seek to buy the fighters through a third country, the report said…."

China Times 7/14/99 AFP "…Taiwanese troops were Tuesday on the alert for any sign that China was to launch major military exercises as cross-straits tensions soared to a three-year high, the defense ministry said. "There is no sign that Chinese communist troops are preparing for large scale war games," defense ministry spokesman Kung Fan-ding told reporters. "But the military are keeping a close watch on any development." A declaration by President Lee Teng-hui that Taiwan is a separate state from China has drawn a furious response from Beijing…."

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpin1j.htm AP 7/13/99 Christopher Bodeen "…Just days after Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui suggested Beijing should deal with Taiwan as a nation and not a part of China, relations between the two appear to be heading toward a new low. Some believe important bilateral talks could now be canceled, and that Beijing could once again try to intimidate the island with another round of military exercises near Taiwan's shores…. In Washington, the State Department on Tuesday urged both sides to hold ``meaningful substantive talks,'' spokesman James P. Rubin said. American diplomats will meet in Taipei on Wednesday with senior Taiwanese officials, he said…..The Chinese-language daily Ming Pao in Hong Kong reported that Beijing was mulling more ``threatening'' responses, including holding war games larger in scale than those conducted in 1996, when the Chinese test-fired missiles off the Taiwanese coast….."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/asia-pacific/newsid_391000/391772.stm 7/13/99 "…China's official news agency said Taiwan was heading for a "monumental disaster" by calling for "state-to-state" relations with Beijing. China earlier threatened to break off dialogue with Taiwan, which it regards as a rebel province rather than a sovereign state…."

Stratfor.com 7/13/99 "…Taiwan has refused to back down from President Lee Teng-hui's declaration that the island was abandoning the "One China" concept. Lee's abandonment of one ambiguous policy for a slightly less ambiguous but much more confrontational one -- just a step short of a declaration of Taiwan's independence -- has drawn threats from mainland China and subdued but substantial concern from the United States. On July 13, Lee reiterated Taiwan's new policy of national sovereignty. "The Republic of China has always been a sovereign state, not a local government," Lee said to visiting Honduran Foreign Minister Roberto Flores Bermudez. And to emphasize Taiwan's newly declared sovereignty, the Taiwanese Foreign Ministry issued a statement on July 13 proclaiming Taiwanese sovereignty over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. The statement condemned recent Philippine and Malaysian activities on the islands and declared that the Spratlys and the entire South China Sea belong to Taiwan "legally, historically, geographically, or in reality."…Taiwan has watched China grow more aggressive in its foreign policy -- pressuring Japan to avoid defensive ties with Taiwan, asserting Beijing's claim to the Spratlys, building a strategic alliance with and purchasing advanced weapons from Russia. Taiwan has also watched as Chinese reformers, struggling against vested interests in the government and military, have been unable to prop up the shaky Chinese economy. Now, with rumors of a devaluation of the yuan again in the wind, hopes for the continued dominance of reformers in Beijing are fading. With a return to old-school Communist leaders and state-centric economic policies in China, Taiwan can only anticipate a deteriorating cross-strait dialogue regardless of its self-declared status. And while China slowly regresses, the U.S. appears to have lost both leverage and commitment in its China policy…Taiwan, anticipating the worst, may be attempting to sabotage U.S. efforts at reconciliation with China in hopes of realigning U.S. policy in the region…."

BBC News 7/15/99 "…Taiwan says it is monitoring the movement of Chinese forces after China issued its clearest warnings so far of possible military action in response to a row over changing the island's ties with the mainland. Taiwanese defence forces have heightened combat alertness on the frontline Kinmen island in case of possible invasion by China, French News agency AFP quoted an officer as saying, despite denials from the country's defence ministry…."

Reuters 7/15/99 "…The 2.5 million-strong People's Liberation Army (PLA) was ``furiously indignant'' and ``determined enough and strong enough to safeguard the nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity,'' the newspaper said. It heaped personal abuse on Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui, who startled his own people, China and everyone else with a switch in policy which aides now say makes no great change to realities. ``He will certainly be reduced to a criminal of the nation who will leave a stink for a thousand years,'' the Liberation Army Daily said. ``He will certainly be spat on by all Chinese, including Taiwan compatriots.'' …."

AP 7/15/99 "…In a sharply worded commentary run in newspapers nationwide, the military's newspaper, the Liberation Army Daily, said the armed forces stood ready to enforce a long-standing government policy to attack Taiwan, if need be, to uphold China's claim to the island. The commentary echoed warnings delivered Wednesday and carried in newspapers today by Defense Minister Chi Haotian. Chi, a career political commissar in the military, said the People's Liberation Army would ``smash any attempts to separate the country.''…."

China times 7/15/99 "…Taiwan urged China Thursday to settle their simmering row over statehood peacefully but put troops on its frontline Kinmen island on heightened alert amid Beijing's military threats. China, furious at what it sees as "separatist" moves, urged Taiwan to "rein in at the brink of the precipice." And Taiwanese financial authorities rushed to bail out the local bourse which has plunged 7.9 percent over three days amid cross-strait jitters…."

Reuters 7/15/99 Carol Giacomo "…The United States, drawing its own line on the latest East Asia crisis, warned China Thursday it would not tolerate a violent solution to the future of Taiwan. ``We would...consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means as a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States,'' State Department spokesman James Rubin said. ''That's about as strong a statement as one can make.'' …The Taiwan Relations Act, which governs ties between Washington and Taipei, commits the United States to ''appropriate action'' in response to threats to Taiwan…..Helms backed Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui for ``stating the obvious'' and said ``China is a divided nation made up of two separate and sovereign states,'' as East Germany and West Germany once were. Helms expressed dismay that the Clinton administration, in affirming its one-China policy, sided with China's mainland Communists instead of democrats on Taiwan. He pressed for a reiteration ``of our legal defense obligations to Taiwan.'' …"

AP 7/16/99 "…With Taiwan's stock market plunging on fears of a Chinese attack, Beijing threatened Friday to call off a long-awaited visit by a top envoy if Taiwan doesn't explain suggestions that the island is a separate country…..A Hong Kong newspaper said China might drop its earlier strategy and instead try to capture outlying Taiwanese islets to force Lee to retract his comments. The Hong Kong Economic Times cited unidentified sources in Beijing…..Chi Haotian, the Chinese Defence Minister, said: "The People's Liberation Army is ready at any time to safeguard the territorial integrity of China and smash any attempts to separate the country. Taiwan is a province of China, and China's sovereignty and territorial integrity allow no separation." …"

Reuters 7/16/99 Dan Martin "…Taiwan is unlikely to prove a pushover if Communist China follows through on a renewed threat to crush by force any moves toward Taiwan's independence. China has a massive military -- about 2.5 million active troops, 9,000 tanks, 15,000 artillery pieces, 4,500 fighters and ground attack aircraft and 400 bombers, a small but proven nuclear missile arsenal and, according to state disclosures on Thursday, possibly even neutron bombs. But wealthy little Taiwan has spent billions to amass a wide range of high-tech arms of its own in the 1990s, precisely to counter the ever-present threat from its giant rival. Armed to the teeth, it is capable of dealing mainland China a bad bloody nose in a conventional conflict and is seen by experts as maintaining its edge in technology and logistics for at least another decade…."

NANDO TIMES 7/15/99 "…Furious at what it sees as separatist moves by Taiwan, China has put its southern military regions on alert to go onto a war footing, Hong Kong newspapers reported Friday. Chinese President Jiang Zemin signed a military order on Tuesday telling forces in the southern cities of Nanjing and Guangzhou to be on alert for war preparations, the Sun daily said, citing unnamed sources. The sources said naval and air forces in the Taiwan Strait were also directed to go to combat readiness. Jiang, who is also head of the powerful central military commission, made the orders, saying it was "meaningless" to carry out talks with Taiwan following comments last Saturday by Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui…."

Reuters 7/17/99 "…China has held "wartime mobilization drills'' in its frontline province facing Taiwan amid a row over the island's political status, a Beijing-backed Hong Kong daily said Saturday. Wen Wei Po said seamen gathered for the drills, conducted by the Nanjing Military Region off Quanzhou in southeastern Fujian province, sang: "We will liberate Taiwan.'' The 12-hour exercise Friday involved more than 100 civilian vessels preparing for rapid mobilization during wartime, the newspaper said…."

Reuters 7/17/99 "…China's army, navy and air force plan joint exercises along its east coast in a warning to its rival, Taiwan, which lies about 100 miles offshore, a Hong Kong daily said Saturday. Quoting unnamed sources, the independent Chinese-language Ming Pao Daily said the timing of the exercises and other details had yet to be decided by the military and Chinese President Jiang Zemin…."

Reuters 7/16/99 "…The independent Hong Kong Economic Times newspaper said on Friday China might occupy one or two of Taiwan's outer islands if Taipei showed signs of pursuing independence. Quoting an unnamed source in Beijing, the Chinese-language daily said Chinese Vice-Premier Qian Qichen was likely to issue a formal warning before the army launched any "brief military contact", which could include seizing one or two islands. Another Hong Kong paper, the Sing Tao Daily, said mainland Chinese military movements had been detected in coastal areas facing Taiwan, saying some civilian aviation had been disrupted on Thursday to allow military flights to take place…."

China Times 7/4/99 CAN "...In an article released on Saturday, Parris H. Chang, who is also a Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Pennsylvania State University, said that the US government should warn mainland China that the use of its military to intimidate or destabilize Taiwan is a violation of the TRA and contradicts the 1979 and 1982 Beijing-Washington communiques which obligate the mainland to pursue a peaceful resolution of its dispute with Taiwan. .... Although the Clinton Administration dispatched the US 7th Fleet to the waters near Taiwan in March 1996, when mainland China tried to intimidate Taiwan with live missile testing, it failed to inform the Congress of the crisis, said Chang.....Chang took pains in his article to caution Washington that it has never "recognized" mainland Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. Instead, it has only "acknowledged" the mainland Chinese position that Taiwan is a part of China. This is well-documented in the three communiques between Washington and Beijing, said Chang. He called on Washington to stick to its stance and refrain from taking a formal position in support of mainland China's assertion that Taiwan is a part of China. In order to avoid any miscalculation on the part of Beijing, Chang said Washington ought to convey the fact that the United States will and must intervene if mainland China acts aggressively toward Taiwan..... Chang said Clinton's statement during his tour of mainland China in 1998 that the United States would not support independence for Taiwan, would not support "two Chinas," or "one Taiwan, one China," and would not support Taiwan's membership in any state-based international organization, deviated from the TRA, which provides in Section 4(d): "Nothing in this Act may be construed as a basis for supporting the exclusion or expulsion of Taiwan from... (any) international organization." He also urged the US Congress to adopt the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act as proposed by senators Jesse Helms, Frank Murkowski and Robert Torricelli on March 24, 1999. This new legislation would greatly strengthen US-Taiwan security ties and mandate the US government to upgrade sales of defense technology and arms to Taiwan, said Chang..."

Stratfor 7/12/99 "…Su Chi, Chairman of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, on July 12 confirmed comments made by Taiwanese President Lee Teng-Hui’s in a July 10 interview on Germany’s Deutsche Welle, that Taiwan would now handle relations with China on a "state-to-state, or at least special state-to-state" level. Su said, "This new definition reflects our disappointment over the Chinese communists’ One-China principle. We think the current abnormal relationship across the (Taiwan) strait is the result of the Chinese communists refusing to face reality." Su added, "We have shown our goodwill by calling ourselves a political entity under a One-China policy, but the Chinese communists have used this policy to squeeze us internationally. We feel there is no need to continue using the One-China term." Lee’s remarks drew harsh criticism from Beijing, which called Taiwan’s moves a "dangerous step toward separatism." …. Further remarks within state media, while not directly implicating China’s leader in economic reforms, Prime Minister Zhu Rongji, again pointed out the problems caused by Zhu’s attempts to artificially inflate the stock market to attract foreign investment. The China Securities daily on July 12 reported that a rush on the stock market by individual investors, who pulled money out of savings for the investments, had triggered a liquidity crunch among several Chinese banks. Taiwan may have ascertained that the internal situation in China at this time may effectively limit its ability to react fully to Taiwan’s pronouncement on cross-straits relations. As well, with the hardliners in China likely to beat out the economic reformers, Taiwan may have decided that even when China has sorted out its own internal problems, the new regime will not be one with which it wishes to negotiate…."

AP 7/13/99 "…China intensified its attacks on Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui today, warning that Taiwan should not underestimate Beijing's determination to recover the island. A commentary by the state-run Xinhua News Agency warned Lee not to ``play with fire and risk the fortunes and prospects of the Taiwanese'' by suggesting that China and Taiwan consider each other separate countries….. ``We hereby warn Lee Teng-hui and the Taiwan authorities not to underestimate the firm resolve of the Chinese government to safeguard state sovereignty, dignity and territorial integrity or the courage and strength of the Chinese people to fight against separatism and Taiwan's independence,'' state media quoted Zhu as saying. Zhu urged Taiwanese authorities to ``size up the situation soberly, rein in at the brink of the precipice and immediately cease all separatist activities.'' …"

Wall St. Journal 7/13/99 Marcus Brauchli "…Taiwan officials said their policy change doesn't rule out eventual reunification, but they insisted Taipei now regards relations between Beijing and Taipei as state-to-state matters. That's a subtle but important shift from Taiwan's previous view that it was a "political entity" in international affairs….."This formulation means there is no basis for contact, exchange and communication" between Taiwan and China, Xinhua quoted Mr. Wang as saying. It also will put pressure on the U.S., which has refined its own one-China policy over the years to reflect its unwillingness to support a permanent split between China and Taiwan. President Bill Clinton last year said Washington wouldn't favor a "one China, one Taiwan" or "two Chinas" policy, but reiterated that resolution of the relationship between China and Taiwan was for the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to settle. A State Department spokesman, James Foley, reiterated that policy on Monday. Still, the timing of Mr. Lee`s comments is awkward for the U.S. and its chief ally in Asia, Japan. Just last week, China failed to win from Japan's visiting prime minister, Keizo Obuchi, assurances that a mutual defense pact between Tokyo and Washington wouldn't include any military action involving Taiwan…."

FOXNews.com 7/12/99 Jonathan Broder "…The Clinton administration, in an attempt to reassure Beijing, on Monday quickly reaffirmed its own policy of one China ruled from Beijing, despite Taiwan’s decision to scrap that policy….. "This is simply not true," said Eric Chiang, the director of information at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, Taiwan’s unofficial "embassy" here. He said the Republic of China was established in 1912 and has remained an independent state, even though the defeated remnant of that republic fled to Taiwan in 1949. "The mainland authority has to recognize and admit this reality," Chiang said in an interview. "Otherwise there is no common ground to engage in any serious dialogue." Chiang added that Beijing "can no longer treat us like they are the central government and we are a local government. They have to treat us like an equal partner for us to sit down and talk."….

Washington Post 7/19/99 Joe McDonald AP "...President Jiang Zemin has warned President Clinton that China would consider using force if Taiwan tries to split from the mainland, state media reported today. It was the highest-level threat so far in a Chinese war of words that began earlier this month when Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui said the two governments have ``state-to-state'' relations...In Washington, the White House said Clinton reaffirmed U.S. support for the ``one China'' policy during the call...."

AP 7/18/99 "...President Clinton assured Chinese President Jiang Zemin in a telephone call Sunday that the United States is committed to its "one China'' policy despite Taiwan's moves toward independence. Clinton spoke with Jiang for a half-hour from the presidential retreat at Camp David in Maryland, said White House spokesman David Leavy. He said the two leaders discussed an array of U.S.-Chinese issues, and Clinton reiterated U.S. policy with regard to China and Taiwan...."

Japan Economic Newswire 7/9/98 "...During his recent visit to China, Clinton said the U.S. would not support independence for Taiwan, a 'one China, one Taiwan or two Chinas' policy, or membership for Taiwan in any international organization for which statehood is a requirement. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang said, 'Here the implication is very clear, the question of Taiwan is China's internal affair and brooks no interference from any other country.... Clinton's reiteration of the 'three noes' was the first time a U.S. president has publicly made such a statement and resulted in widespread concern in Taiwan that the U.S. was changing its policy on the renegade territory..... Tang reiterated China's strong opposition to the act, which requires the U.S. to help defend Taiwan from aggression, and called it a 'deviation' from the 'one China' principle and from U.S. commitments in the Aug. 17, 1982 joint communique to reduce and eventually end weapons sales to Taiwan...."

China Times 7/19/99 AFP "...Tensions between Beijing and Taipei rose Sunday as China cranked up its war machine with an announcement of large-scale military exercises amid a raging row over Taiwan's status. "Several special forces detachments of the People's Liberation Army have gathered and are holding large-scale military attack exercises in a certain military region," the official Life Times daily reported, without giving details. "The Taiwan situation has suddenly intensified and China's People's Liberation Army stands in combat readiness to firmly defend the unity of the motherland and territorial integrity." It was the first confirmation in the state-controlled press that China was holding military exercises, following comments last weekend by Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui suggesting the island was a separate state from the communist mainland. The report came after sources spoke of other defence-related developments in the coastal Fujian province, facing Taiwan...."

Reuters 7/18/99 Benjamin Kang Lim "...China, keeping up a steady stream of threats in a bitter row over Taiwan's political status, said Sunday its army does not rule out an invasion to crush any attempts by the island to declare independence. The threat was splashed on the front page of Hong Kong's Beijing-backed Wen Wei Po newspaper with a picture of waves of amphibious vessels and vehicles making beach landings. ``Beijing: Will not renounce force to counter Taiwan independence,'' the banner headline screamed. The newspaper quoted an unidentified military official as saying the ``military measures would be taken only if there were no other alternatives.'' ..."

AFP 7/16/99 "... China has ordered a low-level military alert in its southern regions facing the Taiwan Straits amid a tense standoff with Taiwan after the island's president claimed it was a separate state, sources said Friday. "The Nanjing military district was ordered on low-level alert Wednesday," a source close to Chinese officials told AFP. "They are now on a level two alert." The Nanjing military district spans most of the southern seaboard, and in the Chinese military a level two alert is just one step up from normal readiness (level three), with two more levels to go before emergency alert...."

Reuters/FOX News 7/20/99 "…Spokesmen for the Guangzhou and Jinan military regions in eastern and southern China denied a report in Hong Kong's pro-Beijing Wen Wei Po newspaper that they were on alert and that troop movements were under way. "It's all normal training. Troops are not on alert," a spokesman for the Guangzhou military region told Reuters. "It's basic training in the first half of this year and field training in the second half," the spokesman said….."

http://www.smh.com.au/news/9907/20/world/world1.html 7/20/99 David Lague "…"We are not committed to abandoning the use of force on the issue of Taiwan," he was reported to have told Mr Clinton. "The reason is very clear ... there are certain forces in both Taiwan island and the world that attempt to separate Taiwan from the motherland. "We will never sit idle if some people engage in Taiwan's independence and foreign forces engage in China's re-unification cause," the official New China News Agency reported. However, White House national security spokesman Mr David Leavy appeared to contradict the Chinese version of the conversation when he said reports of Mr Jiang's threats were "not my understanding of the conversation". Mr Leavy said Mr Clinton had reaffirmed the US's "one-China" policy in his talk with Mr Jiang….A deep slump in Sino-US ties and an intense power struggle between conservative forces aligned around hardline parliamentary leader, Mr Li Peng, and economic reformer, Premier Zhu Rongji, has complicated the Taiwan issue for Mr Jiang and the Chinese leadership….."

BBC 7/20/99 "…Soon after reports of the remarks began to circulate, spokesman Zhu Bangzao used a regular press conference to warn Taiwan to restrain itself "before it is too late". … "Lee Teng-hui and the Taiwan authorities must clearly recognise the situation, rein in their actions before it is too late, and immediately stop all activities aimed at splitting the motherland," Zhu added. While last week's announcement that Chinese scientists had mastered the technology of the neutron bomb received prominent coverage in the official media, a heavyweight commentary in the army newspaper, the `Liberation Army Daily' (`Jiefangjun Bao') underlined the message, expressing "extreme indignation" over President Lee's comments…"

AP Annie Huang 7/20/99 "…President Lee Teng-hui today stood behind his claim that Taiwan and China are two states, calling it a necessary step to prepare the capitalist island for talks on eventual reunification with the communist mainland. Lee insisted he was not championing formal independence for Taiwan, which China says would lead to war. But Beijing was not appeased, reiterating its demand for Taiwan to stop ``all activities aimed at splitting the country.''…."

China Times 7/21/99 CAN "…The Ministry of National Defense (MND) reiterated on Tuesday that it is closely monitoring all movements of mainland Chinese troops. The ministry stressed that no unusual or large-scale movements targeting Taiwan by mainland Chinese military have been seen to date, and dismissed as "untrue" contrary reports by the Hong Kong-based Wen Wei Po newspaper….. The officials admitted, however, that using thousands of civilian fishing vessels is one of Beijing's strategies for invading Taiwan, and added that ROC troops are on high alert to prevent such an invasion….Meanwhile, a MND spokesman said troops stationed on the ROC-controlled outlying islands of Kinmen, and Matsu have vowed to fight "until the end" if mainland forces attempt an invasion…."

China Times 7/22/99 "...Seven members of the US House of Representatives have jointly introduced an amendment bill asking President Bill Clinton to demand that mainland China renounce the use of force against Taiwan. The amendment bill, introduced on July 19 while the House was discussing a security bill related to US embassies, also demanded that the US government extend its support to Taiwan when the island faces military threats from mainland China...."

Washington Times 7/21/99 Bill Gertz "....The Clinton administration has halted a visit to Taiwan by Pentagon officials and is considering a cutoff of U.S. military assistance as a sign of displeasure over Taipei's pro-independence comments, U.S. officials said yesterday. ... The group of defense officials going to Taiwan was to have discussed air-defense cooperation, but the visit was called off to register administration anger over the policy shift, said officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.....China has launched a major propaganda campaign to avert U.S. help with missile-defense efforts in Asia, especially in Taiwan. Additionally, plans to announce the sale to Taiwan of E-2 surveillance aircraft were put on hold because of heightened tensions between China and Taiwan, the officials said...."

The White House 7/22/99 "...THE PRESIDENT: I didn't think this was the best time to do something which might excite either one side or the other and imply that a military solution is an acceptable alternative. If you really think about what's at stake here, it would be unthinkable. And I want -- I don't want to depart from any of the three pillars. I think we need to stay with one China; I think we need to stay with the dialogue; and I think that no one should contemplate force here...."

AP 7/22/99 Christopher Bodeen "...Showing no inclination of backing down in his standoff with China, President Lee Teng-hui said today that Beijing must gradually come to terms with his affirmation of Taiwan's statehood. A U.S. envoy arrived to discuss Lee's new position. Washington's top Taiwan liaison, Richard Bush, brushed off questions from reporters at the airport but said he will meet Taiwanese officials beginning Friday ``to further understand'' the dispute that threatens to destabilize the region. Lee said earlier today his recent controversial statement, that Taiwan and China must deal with one another on a ``state-to-state'' basis, was intended to inject ``positive and friendly meaning'' into dealings between the sides, even though he understood Beijing would find it ``hard to accept at first.'' ....Lee's comments have found broad popular support, despite tensions with Beijing rising to their highest levels since 1996, when China staged threatening military displays in a show of anger over Taiwan's attempts to raise its international profile...."

Washington Times 7/22/99 Bill Gertz "...President Clinton acknowledged yesterday that a Pentagon visit to Taiwan will be delayed because of Taipei's assertions of greater independence from China. Rep. Benjamin A. Gilman, chairman of the House International Relations Committee, responded by vowing to curtail all U.S. arms sales abroad until the White House stops "undercutting Taiwan's national security." At an afternoon White House news conference, Mr. Clinton said of the postponed Taiwan visit, first reported yesterday by The Washington Times: "I didn't think this was the best time to do something which might excite either one side or the other and imply that a military solution is an acceptable alternative. If you really think about what's at stake here, it would be unthinkable." ...."We're concerned about any rhetoric that interferes with effective cross-straits dialogue," White House spokesman Joe Lockhart said about the postponed Pentagon visit. State Department spokesman James Rubin would not comment directly on whether an arms cutoff to Taiwan is under discussion but said: "We haven't made any decision not to provide items that we were previously intending to provide, and any suggestion that we have is simply inaccurate." A senior Pentagon official denied any such cutoff of arms is being contemplated to pressure the Taipei government. The official said the United States is committed to supplying Taiwan with arms and security support. ....A person close to the Taiwan government said the Clinton administration informed Taiwanese officials recently that Mr. Lee's comments were "deliberate sabotage" of U.S. efforts to mend ties to Beijing since the rift over the NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade...."At a time when the United States should be seizing every opportunity to break free of Beijing's definition of 'one China' . . . the Clinton administration is paralyzed by its own anachronistic policy, better known as appeasement," Mr. Helms said at the Senate subcommittee hearing. He said he was "weary of watching our good friends on Taiwan left twisting in the wind by the Clinton strategists for surrender." ...."

SCMP 7/22/99 "...How to punish Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui will dominate the annual Chinese leadership conference in the northern seaside resort of Beidaihe. Until the Taiwan crisis erupted over Mr Lee's definition of cross-strait relations as those between two sovereign states, the Beidaihe conclave, scheduled for early next month, was expected to talk about economic reform. A Beijing source said the leadership under President Jiang Zemin was leaning towards quasi-military action comparable to - if not more severe than - the war drills staged close to Taipei in 1995 and 1996...."

Telegraph [UK] 7/21/99 David Rennie "...Defying predictions in the local media that he would issue a face-saving "clarification" of his original statement on July 9, Mr Lee declared that there would be "one China" - a reference to Beijing's oft-stated principle - only when the two sides had reunified as a democracy. His statements came as a Hong Kong newspaper with close ties to Beijing reported that the mainland's military had been put on alert and had mobilised units in provinces facing Taiwan. A mainland newspaper, the China Youth Daily, added to the sabre-rattling with front-page coverage of special forces exercises in south-east China. A Beijing Foreign Ministry spokesman said Mr Lee had taken a "very dangerous step along the road of splitting the country". Mr Lee, 76, who won Taiwan's first fully democratic presidential election in 1996, said that his government had been elected only by the people of Taiwan, represented only them and had nothing to do with the Chinese mainland....He said: "We are not a local government under [Beijing's] central government." Therefore, "we must conduct interactions with the Chinese Communists on an equal basis with an equal attitude." He made it clear that he was not pushing for independence. But he said: "There is a possibility of one China only after future democratic unification." ..."

SCMP 7/22/99 "...Civilian and military authorities have issued an internal order asking mainlanders to avoid non-essential travel to "frontline" Fujian province. In another development, General Zhang Wannian, Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission, has taken charge of preparation of possible quasi-military tactics to be taken against Taiwan. General Zhang, a protege of President Jiang Zemin, played a key role in the series of wargames launched in the Taiwan Strait in 1995 and 1996...."

Financial Times, London 7/23/99 James Kynge "...US pressure on Taiwan to retreat from its tougher stance toward mainland China has created a favourable atmosphere for talks on Washington's rapprochement with Beijing, raising hopes that bilateral talks on China's entry into the World Trade Organisation may be resumed soon. Chinese officials said that Washington's "positive attitude" on the Taiwan issue had helped reduce the mistrust that has characterised relations since Nato's bombing of Beijing's embassy in Belgrade...."

The Washington Times 7/23/99 "...Sorry, but no matter how miffed the White House may be that Lee Teng-hui, president of the Republic of China on Taiwan, had the audacity to speak his mind about Taiwan's relation's with mainland China without asking Washington's permission first, there is no justification for the public spanking now being meted out by President Clinton. Why you would almost think that it was the Taiwanese who had been stealing our nuclear secrets...."

China Times 7/24/99 "...The major opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) called on the United States on Friday not to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip in mending its ties with mainland China. Responding to US President Bill Clinton's "three pillar" principle in regard to the recent tension between Taiwan and mainland China, DPP legislative caucus leader Lee Ying-yuan expressed the hope that American Institute in Taiwan Chairman Richard Bush, who is currently visiting Taiwan, would relay the voice of the Taiwan people to the US government. Washington's "one China" policy and Clinton's suggestion that the Taiwan issue could be resolved if Beijing adopted the "Hong Kong model" are against the free spirit of Taiwan's 21 million people, said Lee, stressing that mainland China's reluctance to denounce the use of force against Taiwan and Beijing's refusal to turn into a democracy are effectively the major barriers to China's unification. DPP Caucus Secretary-General Chen Chi-mai also urged Washington not to sacrifice Taiwan's interest to repair its relations with Beijing, which he said had been damaged by the US' mistaken bombing of Beijing's embassy in Yugoslavia...."

Associated Press 7/25/99 "…In a sign that it has not forgiven Taiwan's assertion of statehood, China will conduct more naval exercises off the southeastern coast across the waters from Taiwan, a pro-Beijing newspaper reported Sunday. Wen Wei Po and several independent Hong Kong newspapers also reported that the People's Liberation Army conducted joint sea and air exercises ahead of August 1, the anniversary of the army's founding, without specifying the exact date…."

Associated Press 7/25/99 Christopher Bodeen "…Increasingly fed up with their wealthy, democratic island's second-class political status, Taiwanese have given strong support to President Lee Teng-hui's remarks - even though many worry about a possible repeat of Chinese saber rattling three years ago that sent financial markets plummeting…."

Reuters 7/25/99 "…China said Sunday there was no longer any basis for talks with Taiwan since Taipei's decision to drop the ``one China'' policy that has underpinned peace between the rival governments. Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's decision ``to adopt his 'two-state theory' just as cross-straits ties began to warm and on the eve of (senior Beijing envoy) Wang Daohan's visit has damaged cross-straits ties to the extreme,'' the official Xinhua news agency said. ``The basis for Wang Daohan's visit to Taiwan no longer exists,'' the commentary said, referring to a long-scheduled trip to Taipei in October by Beijing's top Taiwan negotiator. While the commentary stopped short of explicitly canceling Wang's trip, it was the strongest indication yet by Beijing that the groundbreaking visit would fall victim to Taiwan's dramatic policy shift…."

The New Australian 7/26/99 Peter Zhang "…In a show of shameless political obeisance that is even remarkable for Clinton, he publicly admitted that he had personally told Jiang Zemin on the phone that he opposed Taiwan's move to secure its liberty and was urging it to toe Beijing's line. As if to demonstrate his loyalty he went so far as to even publicly humiliate Lee Teng-hui, Taiwan's President. Sources have strongly intimated that Clinton promised Jiang that despite the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act which would allow the island the necessary assistance to defend itself he would do whatever was possible to circumvent the Act, and that he would make Lee Teng-hui aware of this fact. In addition, it is believed that certain Taipei officials have complained bitterly about the role that Kenneth Lieberthal, the National Security Council's chief China specialist, played in the affair. Lieberthal's pro-Beijing sympathies are so strong that Taipei officials consider him to be nothing but Beijing's catspaw. It was this behind the scenes pressure (or should I say treachery?) that 'persuaded' Lee Teng-hui to backpedal on Taiwan's right to independence. (No wonder Jiang reckons he got a bargain.) …"

China times 7/26/99 AFP "…Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan on Sunday warned the United States against stoking the flames of independence in Taiwan and called President Lee Teng Hui a "troublemaker" in US-China ties. Going on the offensive ahead of a key security conference here, Tang said he told US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright during a meeting to act with caution in dealing with the China-Taiwan question. "This is a very dangerous theory," he said of Lee's statements that sought to redefine relations with China as a relationship between two states. "The essence of this two-states theory is to publicly deny the one-China principle and to separate Taiwan from Chinese territory," Tang said in a news conference Tang said he had "seriously pointed out" to Albright that "the US should say little and act with great caution" on the issue of Taiwan, which China regards as a beakaway province…."

Reuters 7/25/99 "…Taiwan is expected to put forward another explanation of its new stance toward China in a further effort to defuse a dangerous row with Beijing, a senior U.S. official said. He was speaking after Richard Bush, head of the organization which manages Washington's unofficial ties with Taiwan, held talks with senior officials in Taipei. China has heaped scorn on Taiwan since Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui on July 9 scrapped the "one China'' policy that has kept peace for decades. Lee said Taiwan-China discussions should take place on a special "state-to-state'' basis…."

Los Angeles Times 7/24/99 "…Over the past three years, the Clinton administration has quietly forged an extensive military relationship with Taiwan, authorizing the Pentagon to conduct the kind of strategic dialogue with Taiwan's armed forces that had not been permitted by any previous administration since 1979, according to U.S. and Taiwan sources. The expansion of military ties began after the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996, in which China fired missiles into the waters near Taiwan and the United States countered by sending two aircraft carriers to help protect the island. A Pentagon review later concluded that the United States needed to broaden its contacts with Taiwan's armed forces….Clinton administration officials said there are several purposes for the new military ties with Taiwan. One is to reduce Taiwan's sense of isolation, giving its military leaders a greater confidence in their ties with the United States. Another is for the Pentagon to gain better information about the thinking and plans of Taiwan's armed forces. A third is to respond to the Republican-led Congress, which has been strongly supportive of Taiwan…."

SCMP 7/27/99 Barry Porter Vivien Pik-Kwan Chan "…Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan warned the world yesterday against interfering in China's stormy affairs with Taiwan. He also stressed any move towards separatism or foreign forces seeking independence for Taiwan would provoke war. Mr Tang's comments came during high-level international security talks in Singapore…."

AP 7/26/99 "….President Lee Teng-hui fired off new criticism of China on Monday, his strongest words since drawing Beijing's fury by saying China and Taiwan should deal with each other as separate states. China's angry response has been ``regrettable'' and Beijing's threat to use military force against Taiwan reveals a ``hegemonic'' attitude, Lee was quoted as saying in a statement from the presidential office. ``I can't support the Chinese communist's overemphasis on nationalism and hegemonism,'' Lee said. ``This is unacceptable to us.'' China views Lee's statehood assertion as a major step toward declaring formal independence for Taiwan, a development Beijing says would trigger an invasion to forcefully reunite what it considers a rogue province with the mainland…."

SCMP 7/26/99 "…The military has achieved a qualitative "leap forward" with the emphasis being put on "effectiveness and technology", according to the official publication Outlook. The magazine said the PLA had also worked on preparations for high-technology warfare and rapid deployment of its forces. The article, and others on the mainland's military muscle, was seen as part of the psychological warfare being conducted against Taiwan after President Lee's statehood claim….. Beijing had developed a complete system of long, medium and short-range nuclear missiles, and was capable of launching nuclear missiles from sea, by submarine, or from land-based mobile launches, the article said. The magazine praised the ability of the mainland's nuclear submarines, saying they had succeeded in high-speed cruising and were capable of launching nuclear missiles in "very deep" waters. Dozens of models of tactical missiles had reached "internationally advanced levels", it said….. Meanwhile, the Guangzhou military region, one of three facing Taiwan, announced it had developed the mainland's first comprehensive automatic war zone commanding system, thus "greatly strengthening its ability in fighting a modern warfare", the Guangzhou Daily reported. The system combines the functions of command, control, surveillance, communications and electronic warfare, as well as tighter liaison among the region's forces, the paper said. Generals could now prepare a war or logistical plan in a few minutes instead of hours it took in the past, it said…."

Washington Post 7/27/99 John Pomfret "...Last May, the Taiwanese army shortened a military exercise aimed at countering a hypothetical invasion from China. The reason? An endangered turtle species needed protection on offshore islands. A few months earlier, an artillery practice range in Taiwan's Yulin County was closed. The cause? Complaints about the noise. ..."

Washington Times 7/26/99 Paul Craig Roberts "...The Clinton administration cannot stand up to Beijing, because Beijing used illegal campaign contributions to compromise the Clinton administration. The most striking feature of President Clinton's foreign policy is its lack of consistency. A different view would be that his policy is consistent only in its perversity. Compare Mr. Clinton's China policy with his Serbia policy. Mr. Clinton and his minions - for that is what they are - are hot and bothered because Taiwan referred to itself as an independent state. Mr. Clinton has cancelled or delayed various U.S.-Taiwan exchanges, and The Washington Times reports that Pentagon officials are "considering a cutoff of U.S. military assistance to show displeasure over Taipei's pro-independence comments." Taiwan has been an independent state for a half century. But Mr. Clinton cannot allow Taiwan to speak for itself as a state, because it makes China mad. We have a "one-China' policy, says the State Department. We do "not support Taiwan independence." China, whose human rights record is worse than Serbia's, has the Clinton administration by the short hairs. All the communist government in Beijing has to do is acknowledge that it made campaign contributions to Mr. Clinton and provide the evidence. That would blow Attorney General Janet Reno's cover-up of the illegal affair and send some Democrats off to prision...."

South China Morning Post 7/28/99 Reuters "...China's navy is conducting mobilisation exercises in waters across from Taiwan, the semi-official China News Service said on Wednesday. The drills, attended by senior military officials, were the second naval manoeuvres reported by the domestic media since Taipei enraged Beijing earlier this month when it scrapped its ''one-China'' policy. ..."

http://www.cato.org/dailys/08-04-99.html 8/4/99 Ted Galen Carpenter "...Taiwan has re-emerged as a potential flash point in relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China. Lee Teng-hui's apparent abandonment of the "one China" principle and his insistence that Taipei-Beijing relations are to be conducted on a "state-to-state" basis caught the Clinton administration by surprise.... Although Taiwanese officials are now insisting that Lee's comments were misconstrued and did not constitute a change in policy, that assertion is greeted with widespread disbelief internationally. In any case, the upsurge in tensions between Taipei and Beijing is causing uneasiness in America. Although the United States has no explicit obligation to defend Taiwan, it is likely--as Clinton's comments suggest--that U.S. leaders would not stand by if the PRC engaged in coercion...... Even as Clinton parrots Beijing's view that Taiwan has no right to statehood (or even limited international recognition) the president implies that the United States would come to Taiwan's rescue if the island were attacked. The sending of such mixed signals virtually invites trouble...."

China times 8/5/99 AFP "...Nearly 10,000 Chinese soldiers have volunteered to take part in any operation to stop Taiwan from seeking independence, a Hong Kong newspaper reported Wednesday. The People's Liberation Army officers and troops wrote to the powerful Central Military Commission to offer their services in the "liberation warfare" against Taiwan, the South China Morning Post said quoting a military source. But the Beijing leadership has yet to decide what action to take against Taiwan, the report added...."

AP 7/29/99 "...A widespread blackout in Taiwan left millions of residents without electricity early Friday and caused chaos on roads after traffic lights went out. The outage, which began late Thursday, cut power to areas throughout Taiwan and Kinmen, an island near the China's coast, media reported. The sudden blackout sparked fear among Taiwanese that Beijing was planning an attack on the island, which China considers a renegade province. By early morning power had been restored to about 66 percent of the capital, the state-run Taiwan Power Company said...."

China Times 7/31/99 AFP "...China Friday said Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui had under-estimated Sino-US relations and warned Washington would not support Taiwan's independence....According to the China Daily, Lee is mistaken if he believed Washington would come to the assistance of an independent Taiwan. "The United States will not support Taiwan independence, will not support creating 'two Chinas' or 'one China, one Taiwan," the commentary said....The paper stressed that Washington did not want to see the inclusion of Taiwan in international organisations...."

Business Week 8/9/99 Stan Crock Michael Shari "...The bellicose rumblings from Beijing are giving Asian governments a bad case of the jitters. China refuses to scale back on the warlike rhetoric targeting Taiwan, which has edged closer in recent weeks to asserting its independence. Beijing's argument with Manila over some potentially valuable real estate in the South China Sea has gotten nasty. And a bold assertion by the Chinese that they have the neutron bomb is reminding its neighbors how lethal an Asian arms race could be. So Asian governments want an insurance policy--and they're looking to Washington to get it. That's an interesting twist: Some regional leaders who once decried U.S. meddling are suddenly scrambling for a spot under America's security umbrella. That could mean an increase in the U.S. military's already considerable influence in the region. But Washington has to tread carefully: It wants to help its friends without arousing the ire of an already irritated China...."

China Times 7/29/99 C.N.A. "...Twenty-six US senators sent a joint letter to the White House on Tuesday, warning the Clinton administration not to pressure Taiwan to renounce its recent statement on relations with mainland China. The senators included 25 Republicans and one independent. The letter, initiated by Jesse Helms (R-N.C.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, on July 21 won the endorsement of all Republican heavyweights in the Senate, including Senate President pro tempore Strom Thurmond, Senate Majority Leader

Trent Lott and Senate Majority Whip Don Nickles. Helms initiated the letter on the same day that the Clinton administration sent emissaries to Taipei and Beijing, respectively, in an effort to defuse possible escalation of cross-strait tension over Republic of China President Lee Teng-hui's definition of cross-strait ties as a "special state-to-state relationship." The senators pushed US President Bill Clinton to express support for the democratically elected ROC president and Taiwan people's rights to pursue a higher international profile as well as to ask Beijing through his envoys to renounce the use of force against Taiwan....."

Reuters 7/31/99 "...Taiwan said China seized a freighter carrying supplies to front-line Taiwanese troops Saturday, as tension ran high between the Communist mainland and Nationalist island. A mainland coastguard vessel halted the Taiwanese ship as it took provisions to the heavily-fortified Taiwan-held island of Matsu, close to the Chinese coast, Taiwan authorities said. "The boat owner reported that the ship with 10 crew on board was forced by four armed policemen to go to the mainland," a marine police officer told Reuters...."

Reuters 7/31/99 "...A Chinese coast guard vessel seized a Taiwan freighter carrying supplies to the front-line island defense outpost of Matsu Saturday, Taiwan authorities said. The freighter was accused of smuggling and the seizure comes amid a tense sovereignty dispute between Nationalist-ruled Taiwan and Communist China. ``The boat owner reported that the ship with 10 crew on board was forced by four armed policemen to go to the mainland,'' a marine police officer told Reuters. Shipowner Wen Nung-ti contacted by Reuters said the coast guard had accused the crew of smuggling electrical appliances to the mainland...."

South China Morning Post 7/31/99 Jason Blatt Bibien Pik-Kwan Chen "...Beijing yesterday rejected a letter from a senior Taiwanese negotiator intended to placate its anger over Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's "state-to-state" relations remark. The Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait refused to accept the letter faxed to Beijing by Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation, Xinhua said. ...."

Statfor.com 8/1/99 GIU "...With tensions rising between China and Taiwan, China has made it clear that it is prepared to use military force should Taiwan move too far in the direction of full separation from the mainland. This is, of course, largely a matter of rhetoric. Taiwan is a fully independent state, regardless of political mythology, and functions as an independent country. Nevertheless, rhetoric has led to wars and Beijing is threatening one. The question is what military actions are available to Beijing. Analysis The most obvious option is the invasion and occupation of Taiwan. The most obvious is also the most difficult..."

The Washington Times 7/30/99 Bill Gertz "...The Clinton administration has made punishing Taiwan its main policy option in the dispute between Taipei and Beijing over Taiwan's assertion it should have a "state-to-state" relationship with China. China perceives the remark as a statement of independence and a threat to the "one-China policy," which the United States endorses. As a rebuke, the United States has held up announcement of a planned arms sales to the island, and the visit of a Pentagon delegation to Taiwan was put off. Now comes word that the chief of the U.S. Pacific Command and the leader of the 100,000 troops in the region would not defend Taiwan if it declared itself an independent state and not a part of China. Adm. Dennis Blair, the commander in chief, Pacific, or Cincpac, expressed the Clinton administration's pro-Beijing views in meetings this week with members of Congress and staff. Adm. Blair said Taiwan has become "the turd in the punchbowl" of U.S.-Chinese relations. If Taiwan declared independence, "I don't think we should support them at all," the admiral told several congressional aides. The remark was the clearest sign the administration is aligned with the communist regime in China and would not live up to its defense obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act to prevent an armed aggression against the island...."

AP 8/1/99 "... Chinese police who seized a Taiwanese cargo ship near Taiwan's military outpost of Matsu Island are detaining the crew on board the vessel, a Taiwanese lawmaker said Sunday. The freighter's seizure Saturday comes amid increased tensions between the two sides over a dispute about Taiwan's political status. However, Taiwanese officials say the two events are not related. China claimed the ship was smuggling, an allegation the boat's owner denies...."

http://www.timesofindia.com/010899/01worl11.htm 8/1/99 AFP "...The Pentagon has announced the ``possible'' sale to Taiwan of two E-2T Hawkeye 2000E aircraft and related technology. Taiwan needs the aircraft ``to augment its present operational inventory and its self-defence capacity,'' the Pentagon said in a statement Thursday. Taiwan already has four E-2Ts in its air force. Besides the Hawkeye reconnaissance patrol aircraft, the sale will include two AN/APS-145 radar, two T56-A-427 engines, two OE335/A antenna groups, two mission computer upgrade/advanced control indicator sets and two passive detection system upgrade of software laboratory, it said.

Also included in the transaction --valued at $400 million -- will be spare and repair parts, support and personnel training, the added. ``The proposed sale of this equipment will not affect the basic military balance in the region,'' it said...."

AFP 8/2/99 "...China has ordered a level-two military alert for People's Liberation Army (PLA) forces on the coast along the Taiwan strait, a newspaper reported Monday as a row with Taiwan continued to rumble. The powerful Central Military Commission ordered the alert, one step above normal readiness, in southeast Fujian province after Taiwan's semi-official Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) backed Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's call for "state-to-state" ties, the Sing Tao Daily said, citing unnamed sources in Beijing. The independent Chinese language paper said "inland PLA forces have started to move toward the coast off Taiwan Strait, with airports in the province busy with military planes landing and taking off, while food provisions are being delivered by roads and rail" to Fujian. Unconfirmed reports from Beijing last month also said that PLA troops on the coast facing Taiwan had been placed on a level-two (yellow) military alert...."

Fox Newswire/AP 8/2/99 "...Back in the days when Communist Party propaganda was the only truth in China, engineer Ma Feihong used to think of Taiwan as close to hell on Earth. Today, he knows otherwise. "The government used to say that Taiwan was a very miserable place and that we had a responsibility to liberate them,'' Ma said. "Now we know that they have much higher incomes, a much better life than in China. So who should liberate who?'' The way the government paints it, the Chinese people are united in wanting to see China and Taiwan reunited. In reality, popular emotions are far more varied. The spectrum ranges from people who say they would wage war to retake Taiwan to those who say they understand why the wealthy, democratically governed island is in no hurry to rejoin the mainland....."

http://www.worldtribune.com/index-one-text.html 7/29/99 Vivien Pik-Kwan Chan and Agencies "... President Lee Teng-hui elaborated for the first time yesterday on why he believed ties between Taiwan and the mainland were on a "special" state-to-state basis, pointing to an ethnic bond between the people of both sides. "There exists a special feeling between the Chinese people on both sides of the strait that enables them to mutually better understand each other and, thus, should make them respect each other more," said Taiwan's leader. He rejected Beijing's accusations that he was a troublemaker for asserting statehood for Taiwan, arguing he was seeking to bring the two sides together in a "new China"...."

Associated Press 8/2/99 Elaine Kurtenbach "...Once again, Beijing is using missile tests and war games to intimidate the island it views as a rebel province. Angered by Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui's insistence that the rival governments should deal with each other as one vstate to another, China has turned up the pressure..... Military analysts had anticipated that China would test a new long-range missile this summer, possibly the Dongfeng 31 intercontinental missile. Although such tests usually are secret, this time Beijing was expected to publicize the launch to apply extra pressure on Taiwan. Xinhua's report said Monday's test of a long-range missile was conducted in Chinese territory. No other details were given. Given the mere 90-mile distance between China and Taiwan, long-range missiles probably would not directly affect the island. But they could pose a threat to the United States, which, to Beijing's annoyance, is committed by law to help Taiwan defend itself...."

State department 8/2/99 James Rubin "...Rubin said China's test August 2 of a ballistic missile having a range of 5,000 miles and capable of carrying payloads of up to 1,500 pounds was no surprise.....He added, "We do not have any basis to conclude that the timing of this launch is linked to the issues with Taiwan. This test firing has been expected for some time."....Rubin said the Clinton Administration has decided to sell two E2T early warning aircraft as well as additional spare parts to Taiwan. The spokesman said the decision is "fully consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act."..."

Washington Post 8/3/99 Johm Pomfret Steven Mufson "...Chinese and Taiwanese fighter jets have flown hundreds of sorties over the past three weeks along the center of the narrow strait of water that separates the two sides, in what analysts called the sharpest military escalation of tension in the area in three years. One U.S. official called the Chinese sorties "saber rattling," but as the jets have flown closer and closer to each other's shores, the Clinton administration has become worried that the show of force could accidentally lead to actual conflict....."

Hong Kong Standard 8/3/99 Pamela Pun "...THE seizing of a Taiwan freighter by a mainland coastguard vessel over the weekend was a political message to Taipei, mainland sources said yesterday. And the freighter, Shin Hwa, and its crew are not likely to be released in the near future as the semi-official bodies handling cross-straits ties are currently not functioning, the sources added. Quoting relevant officials in charge of Taiwan affairs, the sources said it was the first time a mainland coastguard vessel launched anti-smuggling activities beyond the middle line between mainland coast and Matzu...."

Las Vegas Sun 8/3/99 AP "...Concerned with increased military flights by both China and Taiwan over the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. government warned on Tuesday of a possible accident and advised both sides against anything that would heighten tensions. "There has been a pickup of activity by both sides," said Pentagon spokesman Kenneth Bacon. "We urge both sides to show restraint." Bacon and State Department spokesman James P. Rubin said, however, that the number of flights has been much higher in the past and said there was no need to be overly concerned. "There have not been extraordinary actions or developments in the strait at this time, and we hope that there will not be," said Bacon.... "It's certainly something we're monitoring very closely, and we're aware that there have been a fairly large number of sorties flown by both China and Taiwan military aircraft," he said. "And any time you have military aircraft flying this close to each other in these numbers, there is concern about accidents." ..."

Washington Post 8/4/99 John Pomfret "...Taiwan in a dangerous game of chicken. And the United States has added to the tension with its announcement Monday that it is selling $550 million worth of weapons to Taiwan. Relations between China and Taiwan have hit their lowest point in three years since Lee's announcement on July 9 that Taiwan wanted to forge "special state-to-state" relations with China. Lee's new formulation marked a major break with the "one China" diplomatic framework that has kept peace between the two sides for decades. ... "

China Times 8/4/99 "...Mark P. Lagon, Council on Foreign Relations fellow at the Project for New American Century, wrote in the latest issue of "National Review" monthly magazine that Taiwan politics aside, President Lee Teng-hui's recent suggestion that cross-strait dialogue should be seen as "state-to-state" negotiation shows "Taipei may have wished to claim statehood before the military balance between Taiwan and China got any worse." The PRC is intense about acquiring high-tech weapons, a larger missile arsenal and the means for air superiority -- all making the seizure of Taiwan feasible in about ten years, he said. Lagon stated in the article titled "Taiwan Gets Bold" that to his credit, "Lee realizes that it will take boldness to lay the groundwork for the only permissible term of reunification: the democratization of the mainland." What should the United States do? First, he wrote, "stop criticizing Taiwan for being provocative. Doing so only prolongs the current crisis by giving Beijing the sense that we do not back Taiwan, and it undermines efforts to deter China from taking military action against the island." Second, find tangible ways to give Taiwan the help and respect it deserves. "Putting ceilings on levels of consultation with a democracy is simply wrong. Higher-level contacts, arms sales, and theater-missile-defense cooperation will likely deter a PRC attempt at reunification by force," he said...."

http://www.chinaonline.com/top_stories/c9080651.aspn 8/6/99 Lester Gesteland "...Taiwan's United Daily News reported today that fighter jets from China and Taiwan are "frequently" coming into close proximity in the airspace over the Straits. In an earlier report, the paper stated that Chinese Sukhoi-27s painted two Taiwanese Mirage 2000-5s with target acquisition radar. The Mirages disengaged before either side opened fire or launched missiles. When contacted about the confrontation, the island's air force said the story was "rumor." ..."

AFP 8/6/99 "...China's military leaders have ordered the air force to strike first in any confrontation with Taiwanese fighter jets, a Hong Kong newspaper reported Friday. With tension between China and Taiwan showing no sign of abating, another newspaper said the Chinese navy was practising naval blockades that would prevent any foreign intervention in a conflict. The powerful Central Military Commission ordered regional commands in Nanjing and Guangzhou in southeastern China "to step up low-flying training," the independent Chinese language Ming Pao daily said. The commission, which is chaired by President Jiang Zemin, had given the air force authority to "strike first in gaining the initiative" in any emergency situation that could lead to a clash with Taiwan, the report said citing unnamed sources...."

China Times 8/6/99 "...Chinese air force provocation almost sparked a confrontation with Taiwanese fighter jets, according to a news report Thursday. An undetermined number of Chinese Sukhoi 27s targeted two Taiwanese air force Mirage 2000-5 fighters with their firing control radars Monday, the United Daily News said. Taiwan's air force later dismissed the report as "rumour". ..."

BBC/Sing Tao (Hong Kong) 8/6/99 "...Excerpts from article by the Hong Kong newspaper 'Sing Tao Jih Pao' on 5th August by special correspondent Hsiao Peng (5618 7720); subheadings as published Amid speculation that China and the United States would mend fences and that both sides may resume WTO talks, a Beijing source disclosed that the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] Central Political Bureau recently held a three-day meeting in Beidaihe. It is understood that the meeting made several conclusions. First, Beijing must resolutely wage a struggle against Li Teng-hui's flagrant move to pursue Taiwan independence, prevent the Taiwan authorities from wilfully splitting China and indefinitely stalling China's reunification process, and set a cross-strait reunification timetable. Second, Li Teng-hui's " two state theory" has received secret support from the United States. Third, it was decided that Xi Jinping would be appointed acting governor of Fujian, with Zhao Xuemin and Shi Zhaobin to be named Fujian provincial CCP vice-secretaries in a move to step up readiness for a war against Taiwan and the Fujian front-line leadership... The Beidaihe meeting held that on the political, diplomatic, military, and economic fronts, China must take necessary measures against collusion between the United States and Taiwan independence forces and resolutely crush any attempt by foreign forces to meddle in the Taiwan issue...."

AP 8/7/99 "...Taiwan on Saturday accused China of spreading rumors of military confrontation on the Internet and increasing military flights to rattle the island's financial markets. The Defense Ministry said a Chinese-language Web site registered in the United States but apparently controlled by China posted a false news report on Friday that a Taiwanese F-5E fighter jet was downed by a Chinese SU-27. ..."

The Straits Times 8/8/99 "... The neutron bomb which has the capability to kill people but leave buildings intact will prove effective in an armed assault on Taiwan, a Chinese military journal said. The bomb can be deployed to inflict extensive damage to military targets on the island while leaving buildings minimally affected, reported the latest issue of China's Defence News. Quoting a commentary in the journal, Japan's Sankei Shimbun noted the use of nuclear warfare against Taiwan had caught the attention of military experts...."

Financial Times 8/9/99 Mure Dickie "...Taiwan has called for vigilance against attempts by mainland China to use psychological warfare to undermine confidence amid increased military activity over the narrow strait dividing the two rivals. The announcement from Tang Fei, Taiwan defence minister, came as officials investigated the source of a report falsely attributed to the semi-official Central News Agency that said Taiwanese and mainland fighters had clashed. Local media said the report was posted on an internet site apparently controlled from China. In a further sign that the cross-Strait dispute has gone firmly online, hackers sympathetic to Beijing's stance yesterday attacked the internet site for an arm of the Taiwan government and left messages declaring the island would always be a part of China..."

National Review 8/9/99 Mark Lagon "...How did we get to this point? It's important to remember who provoked whom. In July 1995 and March 1996, China conducted missile tests close to Taiwan during the island's first significant democratic elections. After administration officials unwisely suggested to the press that the U.S. maintained "strategic ambiguity" about whether it would assist Taiwan if the island were attacked, President Clinton sent two aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait to put an end to the tests, which were effectively blockading the island's main ports. The carrier deployment might have suggested the benefits of firmness-but the administration subsequently sought to appease Beijing by urging Taiwan not to be provocative. A delegation of former Clinton officials -- including William Perry and Gen. John Shalikashvili -- took this message to Taiwan in January 1998...."

STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update 8/8/99 "...China has taken to threatening Taiwan again, and people are asking what China will do. We have turned to the question of what China can achieve against Taiwan. In our view, it is not militarily capable of mounting a serious threat. Weaknesses in China's navy and air force mean that Taiwan is capable of defending itself quite readily. If the U.S. goes to Taiwan's aid, which we think it will, China will suffer a massive defeat in attempting to take Taiwan. China knows it. Why is it mounting this challenge? Two reasons: First, to demonstrate Beijing's will against divisive forces inside of China; second, to create a sense of embattlement that justifies increased repression inside of China in the name of patriotism...."

http://www.insidechina.com/news.php3?id=83993 Inside China Today AFP 8/9/99 "...Chinese submarines have been mobilized in seas near the Taiwan Strait and are "awaiting orders" as tensions between Beijing and Taipei showing no sign of abating, a Hong Kong newspaper reported Monday. Some of the Chinese submarines, which participated in recent exercises, had been asked to remain in seas nearest to the Taiwan Strait, the Beijing-backed Wen Wei Po reported, citing military experts. Chinese warships have also stepped up patrols in the Taiwan Strait, while advanced air force fighters have been put on alert, the paper said. ..."

Associated Press 8/9/99 "…A cyberwar has erupted between Taiwanese and Chinese computer hackers lending support to their governments' battle for sovereignty over Taiwan. A Taiwanese hacked into a Chinese high-tech Internet site on Monday, planting on its webpage a red and blue Taiwanese national flag as well as an anti-Communist slogan: ''Reconquer, Reconquer, Reconquer the Mainland.'' A Chinese railroad website and a securities website were hacked into in a similar way….. The Web attacks came one day after several Taiwanese government and academic websites were hacked into by the Chinese, with their webpages erased and replaced by slogans stressing China's sovereignty over Taiwan and warning the island against any moves to split the motherland….. Lin Fu-jen, a Taiwanese computer expert, said Taiwanese hackers, some of whom have written widely damaging computer viruses, are more capable of wreaking havoc on China's computer systems. Lin called on both sides to exercise restraint…."

 

New York Times 8/9/99 Seth Faison "...Even with all the various versions of "state" being bandied about in Taiwan these days, it still comes as a surprise to hear someone actually talk about statehood. As in, American statehood. Yet David Chou comes right out and says it: Taiwan should become the 51st state of the United States. Chou is not joking. He has a plan. It may never work, but just try telling Chou that. He has been working on it for years...."

Pacific Stars And Stripes 8/10/99 Matt Twomey "...As tensions escalate in the Taiwan Strait, members of the 7th Fleet watch, knowing they could be sent in as they were three years ago to prevent a violent takeover of Taiwan by China. The rhetoric began heating up anew last month when Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui said China must deal with Taiwan on a "state-to-state basis." Lee later claimed this was no move toward independence, but simply intended to establish equal political footing in negotiations for reunification. But it doesn't seem China's leaders are buying that. They're preparing for war - a step they've consistently said they are ready to take to reclaim the island 120 miles off China's southeastern coast. China sees Taiwan strictly as unfinished business, a prodigal son whose destiny is to return to China's fold, just as Hong Kong was dutifully given back by Britain in 1997. As much as the United States claims to be committed to the "one China" policy - that is, that Taiwan is indeed China's province - it was the 7th Fleet, sent by President Truman, that prevented the victorious communists from rolling over the island that the nationalists retreated to a half-century ago...."

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/19990809/ts/taiwan_usa_2.html 8/9/99 Reuters "...Taiwan's president Monday told visiting members of Congress he stood by his controversial call for political equality with China and denied scuttling an aircraft deal to punish the U.S. for not supporting the move...."

Financial Times 8/10/99 Mure dickie "...Taiwan's defence minister yesterday warned that mainland China would maintain military pressure against the island at least until Taiwan's presidential elections next March. But in an apparent effort to ease US fears of possible confrontation, Tang Fei told Benjamin Gilman, visiting chairman of the US House of Representatives international relations committee, that Taiwan would respond "intelligently" to the mainland threat. "The military moves of the Chinese communists will not ease ahead of the presidential election next year," the defence minister's office quoted him as saying..."

Stratfor, Inc. 8/9/99 "...China has taken to threatening Taiwan again, and people are asking what China will do. We have turned to the question of what China can achieve against Taiwan. In our view, it is not militarily capable of mounting a serious threat. Weaknesses in China's navy and air force mean that Taiwan is capable of defending itself quite readily. If the U.S. goes to Taiwan's aid, which we think it will, China will suffer a massive defeat in attempting to take Taiwan. China knows it. Why is it mounting this challenge? Two reasons: First, to demonstrate Beijing's will against divisive forces inside of China; second, to create a sense of embattlement that justifies increased repression inside of China in the name of patriotism...... Beijing's military options are more limited than its rhetoric, particularly if the United States is prepared to defend Taiwan. However, even if the United States were to abandon Taiwan and remain neutral in a Beijing-Taipei confrontation, it is our view that Beijing would face severe difficulties in mounting a serious threat against Taiwan..... China is not likely to achieve air superiority over the Taiwan Straits through a conventional air campaign. Taiwan currently has about 150 F-16s, over 250 F-5s, as well as 60 Mirage 2000s. These are backed up by four Hawkeye battle management platforms, used by the U.S. Navy for air-sea battle management. China's air force has larger numbers of aircraft, but none are as sophisticated as Taiwan's. Taiwan would win any battle for air superiority and would not require U.S. assistance, save possibly for the replacement of munitions. And even this may not be altogether necessary. ..... Strategy aside, politics dictates a defense of Taiwan. Clinton is on the defensive over China. Between campaign finance, spy scandals and a general sense that U.S. policy on China was poorly implemented, the current administration would be placed in an impossible position should China attack Taiwan. Regardless of its intent, the failure of the administration to come to Taiwan's aid would be read as confirmation of the worst charges of its critics. Having aided Kosovo, whose strategic interest to the United States was dubious, the failure to defend Taiwan, whose strategic importance is manifest, would be politically impossible for the Clinton administration. This means that while Taiwan is formidable, we would expect the United States to participate in its defense as well. And China knows all this...."

South China Morning Post 8/10/99 Willy Wo-Lap Lam "...Beijing has moved several elite PLA officers to the Nanjing Military Region leadership in preparation for possible military action against Taiwan. The commander of the First Group Army, Zhu Wenquan, had recently been promoted to chief of staff of the Nanjing region, which oversees the Taiwan area, an army source said. Major-General Zhu was at the same time made a lieutenant-general. Based in Huzhou, Zhejiang province, the First Army is one of the PLA's best equipped units. General Zhu is known in military circles as an expert in amphibious warfare. As chief of staff, he will play a pivotal role in manoeuvres and other means of putting pressure on Taiwan...."

China Times 8/12/99 "...Rear Admiral Timothy J. Keating of the US Navy's 7th Fleet said on Wednesday that the People's Republic of China should refrain from taking any military action against Taiwan. He made the remarks while answering a CNA question at a press conference held aboard the aircraft carrier "Kitty Hawk" in waters adjacent to Pattaya. Keating said Beijing must consider "very carefully" before it takes actions violating the "Taiwan principle,"

because the US military power is larger than China's and Washington is ready to take prompt counter-actions. The "Kitty Hawk," equipped with some 70 various types of jet fighters, will depart for Japan's Yokosuka Harbor via northern Taiwan and the public seas after concluding its visit to Thailand on Aug. 15. .... He went on to say that China will come to know that if they take military action against Taiwan or other areas, they will encounter the US military, which is powerful in its number of personnel, training and war preparedness...."

Washington Post 8/10/99 Michael Laris "...President Lee Teng-hui of Taiwan today publicly played down the significance of recent sorties by Chinese jet fighters over the Taiwan Strait, in an apparent effort to combat what Taiwan views as a campaign of psychological warfare by the Chinese government. .... Lee told an audience of government officials that Chinese fighter jets crossed the dividing line on the Taiwan Strait on two recent occasions, but he dismissed the brief incursions into Taiwan's airspace as mistakes by Chinese pilots. The Defense Ministry also announced that it has detected no sign that China is preparing an invasion, and said China's military does not appear to be planning to conduct large-scale war games in the strait similar to those in 1995-96...."

Associated Press 8/10/99 Christopher Bodeen "...-Taiwanese officials did an about-face Tuesday and confirmed that Chinese warplanes crossed into Taiwan's military airspace twice last month. The Defense Ministry said it had previously denied the crossings because they appeared to have been accidental. The ministry denied the crossings as recently as Tuesday morning, but then released a statement after President Lee Teng-hui mentioned the planes at a government seminar. ``They came over the center line, which is pretty unclear, probably because their planes were flying too fast,'' Lee said. As soon as the Chinese pilots realized where they were, ``they took off as fast as they could,'' he said. The announcement came amid tensions between Beijing and Taipei that have risen to their highest level in years, causing international concern over the possibility of a confrontation...."

Stratfor 8/10/99 "...Concluding two days of talks with Taiwan on August 10, United States Representative Benjamin Gilman (R-N.Y.), chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on International Relations, called for China to "renounce the use of force against Taiwan." Gilman told reporters, "We expressed our concern about Chinese 'sabre rattling' over President Lee's state-to-state remarks and its effect on the confidence on security-building in the region. And we expressed our nation's abiding interest in peace and stability in East Asia and for the peaceful resolution of Taiwan's future. As we leave Taiwan, we are calling upon the People's Republic of China to renounce the use of force against Taiwan." Gilman added that he and the six members of the congressional delegation he led to Taiwan, "recognizing that Taiwan is governed by a democratically-elected president, strongly support President Lee's rights to address Taipei's views of the cross-strait relationship. As a democracy, any change in Taiwan's status should come only with the consent of the people of Taiwan. President Lee should not feel pressured to negotiate until China is a democracy, to negotiate a reunification until such time."...Gilman also said that Lee was justified in calling for state to state negotiations with China, and that China must bear responsibility for damage to security in the region. "It is our view that the two sides should engage in a dialogue with equals," said Gilman. He asserted that Taiwan continues to enjoy considerable support in Congress, and vowed lawmakers would block any attempt by the administration to punish Taiwan or force the island to compromise in negotiations with China. "We understand what President Lee was doing and that he was facing reality and I think we all have empathy for his approach to the problem."..."

International Herald Tribune 8/10/99 "...President Lee Teng-hui told a U.S. congressional delegation Monday that he would not back down from his demand for political equality with China. Mr. Lee told the delegation led by Representative Benjamin Gilman, the chairman of the House International Relations Committee, that he stood by his call for Taiwan-China ties to be conducted on a ''state-to-state'' basis. He said his statement merely ''articulated an undeniable fact,'' a reference to the existence of separate governments on Taiwan and China for the last half-century.

''This is to further clarify and assert that relations on both sides of the strait are equal,'' Mr. Lee's office quoted him as saying....A hacker from Taiwan gained access to a Chinese high-tech Internet site on Monday, planting on its Web page a red and blue Taiwanese national flag as well as an anti-Communist slogan: ''Reconquer, Reconquer, Reconquer the Mainland.'' A Chinese railroad Web site and a securities Web site were hacked in a similar way...."

Hong Kong Standard 8/11/99 "...MAINLAND fighter jets have twice crossed the dividing line in the Taiwan Straits, Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui claimed yesterday. Mr Lee told a meeting of government officials that the incidents involved advanced Sukhoi-27 fighters. However, he said they did not seem to be flying in an aggressive pattern....Meanwhile, all servicemen in the Fujian Military Command Region have been ordered to cancel their holidays, the Hong Kong Standard has learnt. Those on leave have been recalled. Sources said the troops were in a state of ``combat readiness'' and were ``awaiting orders at any time'' since Mr Lee's statehood claims last month The mainland has also activated its civil militia for the first time in 10 years and is training reservists in exercises near the Taiwan Straits, according to an official news agency.

``Nine militia divisions are participating in the exercises under the leadership of instructors from the People's Liberation Army,'' China News Service quoted Fujian Daily as reporting...."

The nation 8/11/99 "...BEIJING: China has activated its civil militia for the first time in 10 years and is training the reservists in exercises near the Taiwan Strait, a military official said yesterday. "Militia men are participating in the exercises under the leadership of 80 instructors from the People's Liberation Army," a spokesman for the mobilisation department of the Fujian Military Command said. Fujian Province is situated in south-east China and sits across the strait from Taiwan. A Hong Kong newspaper meanwhile reported that China has posted several elite PLA officers to its south-eastern region in preparation for possible military action against Taiwan. The army source said the transfer of elite personnel and units to the Nanjing military region indicated that some form of mobilisation had begun in earnest.

The independent Chinese-language newspaper Hong Kong Economic Times reported that senior Chinese leaders decided at their annual summit to exert pressure on Taiwan and to launch military action if the island took concrete moves to seek independence...."

South China Morning Post 8/11/99 Jason Blatt "...The Chinese leadership has decided to use an appropriate degree of force against Taiwan, possibly including the occupation of an outlying island, should Taipei authorities refuse to abandon President Lee Teng-hui's ''two states theory''. Top units including the party's Central Military Commission and the Leading Group on Taiwan have been empowered to decide on the timing as well as severity of the military action to be taken. This is the preliminary decision of the series of leadership meetings at the Beidaihe resort, the bulk of which are due to end this week. A Beijing source said yesterday the options the PLA was considering included the invasion and temporary occupation of an outlying island held by Taipei. ''Hardliners at Beidaihe urged that action be taken soon after the October 1 National Day,'' the source said. ''Moderate elements argued Beijing should wait until the presidential elections in Taipei next March. They said military action should be taken if the new president did not give up Lee's `splittist' stance.'' In the interim, Beijing would step up psychological warfare by moving troops to Fujian and staging manoeuvres...."

 

8/11/99 Willy Wo-Lap Lam "...It is an unreal city, where the unthinkable - and the irrational - sometimes impinge upon reality and threaten to take it over. Where assumptions about the Chinese destiny risk being stood on their heads.

It is Beidaihe, Hebei Province, where leaders convene every summer for a series of informal, brainstorming sessions... Take Taiwan. The Politburo members and generals gathered in the scenic resort have not decided on how to punish Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui for his so-called "two states theory". Yet the momentum seems to be slipping away from a peaceful, rational solution of the 50-year-old problem. A source close to the meetings said President Jiang Zemin, also chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), had yet to make a ruling on whether to use force to respond to what Beijing perceived to be a Lee-inspired plot to torpedo the "one China" concept. The source said Mr Jiang still wanted to resuscitate the "constructive, strategic partnership" with the United States, which would be shattered by the use of even quasi-military means such as a naval blockade of the island. Yet as of late last week, the hawks seemed to have dominated some discussion sessions on Taiwan. At least one general pinpointed the number of deaths the People's Liberation Army expected to inflict via a "quick, limited war" such as temporarily taking over the Taipei-ruled outpost of Quemoy or Matsu. Another senior officer detailed the several measures PLA forces would take "should the splittists dare to retaliate" against the mainland. These included knocking out not only Taiwan's military installations but also railways, power plants and oil depots Apparently, few participants in the meetings mentioned the economic cost - to Taiwan, the mainland, and Hong Kong. The hawks, of course, had a ready answer for this. They raised the so-called Vietnam analogy, however unconvincing it may sound to observers. Put simply, the hardliners praised Deng Xiaoping for taking "resolute action" against Vietnam in 1979 despite the latter's alliance with the Soviet Union. They claimed the huge sacrifice incurred by China had bought the nation 20 years of peace...."

Rowan Callick, Hong Kong The Australian Financial Review 8/12/99 "...Indications are emerging that China's leading cadres may have sanctioned military action against Taiwan as their annual seaside policy planning session at Beidaihe winds up. No public statement follows such party conferences, whose dates are not disclosed either, but the month-long Taiwan confrontation appears to have become a central focus, despite China's myriad other challenges...."

South China Morning Post 8/12/99 Agencies "...Even with Taiwan, trade setbacks and the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade troubling relations, Americans want solid ties with China, a US senator told Premier Zhu Rongji yesterday. "I tried to reassure him there is no conspiracy in the United States or the US Congress that is out to get China or derail the relationship," said Republican Chuck Hagel, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on a visit to Beijing. "We have to come at the China-US relationship in large global terms." Senator Hagel listed North Korea, tensions between India and Pakistan, and Russia as areas where China played an important role. In discussing Taiwan during their hour-long meeting, Mr Zhu did not disclose how the mainland would handle the Taiwan crisis, the senator said....The senator told Mr Zhu that Taiwan was a friend of the US, but US policy recognised only Beijing and supported the eventual reunification of Taiwan and the mainland....While Senator Hagel was trying to build bridges, a senior American navy officer said the mainland was unlikely to resort to force against Taiwan as Beijing knew it would provoke a firm response from the US. Rear Admiral Timothy Keating, commander of a US 7th Fleet aircraft carrier group, said there was no indication the PLA was preparing to use force against Taiwan. Admiral Keating was speaking on the USS Kitty Hawk, which is in the South China Sea region with another aircraft carrier, the USS Constellation. "If they [China] attempt to undertake any sort of operation, whether Taiwan or anywhere, they're going to have the US Navy to deal with," he said...."

South China Morning Post 8/12/99 Jasper Becker "...Mainland state media have heralded a crack commando unit in a sign that Beijing is upping the ante in its psychological warfare against Taipei. People's Daily described the Flying Dragons as a "mysterious" force set up seven years ago by the Nanjing Military Region. The paper described them as "tigers on land, dragons in the sea and hawks in the air" for their ability to carry out combined operations. The rapid reaction force was formed by officer Jiang Jianxiong, a veteran described as having 26 years' experience of special operations warfare...."

Hong Kong Standard 8/12/99 Fong Tak-ho "...AMID cyber warfare and escalating tensions across the Taiwan Straits, more than 215 Taiwan legislators and computer scholars have sponsored an open letter calling for caution over a cyberspace joint-venture in which the mainland's official Xinhua News Agency is one of the investors. Meanwhile, the mainland yesterday boasted that if a real war broke out between the two, the island could not resist for more than five days. ``Once war breaks out, resistance would be four to five days at the most,'' said Business Times News Weekly, which splashed pictures of jet fighters and missiles alongside the story. China.com, a company listed on the United States Nasdaq, was the ``cyber version of a Trojan horse to advance Beijing's political goal of conquering Taiwan'', the Taiwan legislators said in the letter....."

China Times 8/12/99 "...A legislator of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on Wednesday urged the Executive Yuan to set up an "information warfare center" in order to protect the island's electronic networks.

In light of recent attacks by computer hackers on websites maintained by various Republic of China bodies, including the Control Yuan, Li Wen-chung (Taipei County) said at a press conference that it is easy for hackers to break into government websites and that if potential enemies launch a formal information war, the outcome would be "unthinkable." Lin said he regarded the recent intrusions as just a prelude to an information war rather than a full-on attack...."

China Times 8/13/99 "...Amos Perlmutter, a professor of political science and sociology at American University, wrote in The Washington Times Wednesday that "the only wise act on the part of the American administration has been to enhance Taiwan's strategic and security status by selling them the F-16," he said. The tension between the United States, the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China on Taiwan is mounting. "We do not expect a repetition of the 1996 military confrontation over the Taiwan Strait, but the risk for escalation is still in place," said the professor in an article titled "Taiwan cliffhanger closer to the edge?" Perlmutter accused the Clinton administration of kowtowing to the world's chief violator of human rights, the PRC, while the United States conducted a "humanitarian war" in Kosovo. The conflict between the PRC and the ROC "calls for a clear, courageous, and determined policy on the part of the United States, he said...."

South China Morning Post 8/11/99 Jason Blatt "...The Chinese leadership has decided to use an appropriate degree of force against Taiwan, possibly including the occupation of an outlying island, should Taipei authorities refuse to abandon President Lee Teng-hui's ''two states theory''. Top units including the party's Central Military Commission and the Leading Group on Taiwan have been empowered to decide on the timing as well as severity of the military action to be taken. This is the preliminary decision of the series of leadership meetings at the Beidaihe resort, the bulk of which are due to end this week. A Beijing source said yesterday the options the PLA was considering included the invasion and temporary occupation of an outlying island held by Taipei. ''Hardliners at Beidaihe urged that action be taken soon after the October 1 National Day,'' the source said. ...."

South China Morning Post 8/11/99 Glenn Schloss "...Two US aircraft carriers have conducted exercises in the South China Sea in a move viewed as sending a warning to Beijing as tensions escalate over Taiwan. In a clear show of muscle, the USS Kitty Hawk and USS Constellation and their battle groups were deployed on Saturday and Sunday over a wide area of the sea, much of it claimed by China. It was designed to remind the PLA and Chinese leaders of the deployment of two aircraft carrier battle groups in the Taiwan Strait during the 1996 crisis, analysts said. A United States official said the exercises were deliberately conducted in the South China Sea amid the Taiwan tensions and increasing concern over the Spratly Islands. "This deployment was a nice way to let our friends and potential adversaries know that the US Navy remains committed to maintaining peace and stability throughout the region," the official said. ..."

http://www.scmp.com/news/Front/Article/FullText_asp_ArticleID-19990812005701102.asp 8/12/99 "...The PLA has mobilised thousands of militiamen and reservists, part of a military build-up in the Fujian region to pressure Taiwan.

A defence source said yesterday most of these non-regular forces - including demobilised soldiers - would come from Fujian. The rest of the planned force of more than 500,000 would be drawn from provinces in the Nanjing Military Region, which has responsibility for Taiwan. The source said training had started for thousands of militiamen and reservists. Most have regular jobs and in normal times their main function is to help to maintain law and order..... "To overwhelm the 400,000 strong Taiwan Army by large margins, Beijing has to use a good chunk of the 2.5 million-strong PLA," he said. "And the militiamen and reservists, who won't leave the mainland, will temporarily handle the duties of regular soldiers engaged in the Taiwan theatre." ..."

Washington Post 8/13/99 Michael Laris Steven Mufson "...Chinese Embassy officials and visiting army officers and scholars have told U.S. analysts and experts in Washington that China is considering a new show of military force in reaction to Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui's recent assertion that Taiwan and China should be treated as equals...."

South China Morning Post 8/13/99 Jason Blatt Agencies "...Taiwan denied yesterday that its ally Panama was planning to switch diplomatic ties to Beijing after it was reported that the country's vice-president-elect had visited the mainland. Xinhua reported that bank executive Alberto Vallarino, 48, was invited to the mainland by the Chinese People's Institute of Foreign Affairs and held unofficial meetings with senior officials including Vice-President Hu Jintao. Panama, a Central American republic, is one of only 28 countries to have diplomatic relations with Taipei.

Rumours have circulated in Taiwan over recent years that Panama would switch ties to Beijing, but Panama has consistently denied harbouring such intentions. Taipei's acting Foreign Ministry spokesman, Henry Chen, said yesterday: "Ties between the Republic of China [Taiwan] and Panama stay unchanged." ..."

New York Times 8/13/99 Jane Perlez "...Chinese government officials have warned the Clinton administration that Beijing may be compelled to take military action against Taiwan to "punish" Taiwan for what Beijing sees as moves toward independence, administration officials and China experts said Thursday In reply, Washington has warned the Beijing officials that action by the Chinese against Taiwan would bring retaliation by the United States, officials said. In the last week, the administration has also publicly and privately urged the two sides to resolve the situation between themselves. The message from the Chinese has not come from the very top of the government but from Chinese officials in meetings with administration officials. It was not clear, administration officials said, whether a firm decision had been made by Beijing what precise action would be taken. If military action was taken it could range, they said, from striking at Taiwan to seizing an unpopulated island belonging to Taiwan. Military action against Taiwan itself appeared to be the most unlikely course for Beijing, several administration officials said...."

The Straits Times (Singapore) 8/13/99 "...THE war being waged between China and Taiwan in cyberspace, which led to government websites on both sides being hacked, could well lead to a real war, some analysts have warned. The attacks on the government websites had prompted concerns about Taiwan's ability to protect its electronic information infrastructure. Internet security expert Chang Hui-kuan warned of Taiwan's vulnerability in this area. "Following the break-in, the government simply deleted the malicious information, without providing further information on how the system could be protected from future attacks. This makes us wonder if the government has the capability to counter any form of cyber-attacks," he said. Military experts warned that a simulated war in cyberspace could well degenerate into a real war. "The advance of information-technology and its ease of mastery by civilians has added a new dimension to modern warfare: war can be more easily waged than before, not by military establishments or politicians, but by civilians well-versed in technology," said strategist Alex Kao...."

Pacific Stars And Stripes 8/14/99 Micool Brooke "...China's leaders know their country will have the U.S. Navy to contend with if the current tensions with Taiwan escalate into an invasion, a senior U.S. naval officer said Thursday. But Rear Adm. Timothy Keating said there was no indication China planned operations against Taiwan and insisted that it was a coincidence that two U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups were operating within quick reach. Keating, commander of the USS Kitty Hawk battle group that just concluded scheduled exercises with Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, said the Navy brought a "stabilizing influence" in the Pacific. "China will know if they attempt to undertake any kind of operation - whether it's Taiwan or anything - that they are going to have the U.S. Navy to deal with," Keating said. "We are there in numbers, we're trained, we're ready and we're very powerful," Keating said....."

Reuters 8/13/99 "...Chinese officials have warned the Clinton administration that Beijing feels compelled to use force to punish Taiwan for recent statehood assertions, former U.S. officials involved in the issue said Friday. The Wen Wei Po, a Beijing-funded newspaper in Hong Kong, Friday intensified psychological pressure on Taiwan, saying military conflict could erupt at any moment. Commenting on reports of the Chinese warning, David Leavy, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said, ''Any effort to resolve the issues in the cross-straits by other than peaceful means would be of grave concern to the United States. That hasn't changed.'' .... "

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/apbreak.htm 8/13/99 George "...Chinese officials are sounding out U.S. specialists on how the Clinton administration might respond to military action against Taiwan following tentative Taiwanese moves toward independence. The Clinton administration repeated a longstanding warning Friday that it would view with ``grave concern'' any effort to settle the conflict with Taiwan by other than peaceful means. U.S. officials said there was no evidence of war preparations by China. ``It's the United States government judgment that there aren't any extraordinary developments or signs that there is a mobilization on the PRC's part,'' said National Security Council spokesman David Leavy. Of immediate concern to the administration are the military aircraft that China and Taiwan have been flying in the Taiwan Strait over the past week. U.S. officials have said an accident involving rival aircraft could have unpredictable consequences. One analyst said any Chinese action against Taiwan would have ruinous effects on Chinese ties to the West, threatening China's highly profitable trade with the United States and killing indefinitely China's hopes of joining the World Trade Organization...."

China Times 8/14/99 "...Military conflict in the Taiwan Strait can erupt at any moment, a Beijing-backed Hong Kong newspaper reported in front page headlines Friday. But with China's military preparations virtually impossible to verify, China watching diplomats and observers all face the same problem..... There have been several reports of a military buildup on the Chinese coast facing Taiwan. But the US Defense department said Thursday it had no information of any concentration in Fujian province...."

US Government 8/13/99 State Department Briefing "...We have not seen any extraordinary developments or signs that the PRC is mobilizing for military action in the Taiwan Strait. Of course, we continue to monitor the situation very closely but we have received no warnings or special communications. We've continued contacts with both the PRC and Taiwan urging that neither side take any steps inconsistent with a peaceful resolution of their differences...."

Strait Times 8/14/99 Lee Siew Hua "...The majority in Congress has been muted in the response to the row across the Taiwan Strait, with the exception of a highly vocal core of anti-communist legislators who have always sided with Taiwan. Until China makes aggressive military moves, a watchful silence is likely to prevail in the US Congress rather than outright hostility. Essentially, there is respect for the "one China" policy. And the reality is that the current tension is still at the level of a rhetorical war and has not sunk to the dangerous depths of 1995 and 1996.....This time, Congress has generally been less hostile, for now, while the administration moved decisively to quieten both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Its sequence of words and deeds have included sending envoys to Taiwan and China on parallel missions, and allowing a situation for two aircraft carriers to conduct a "passing exercise" in the South China Sea.

Apparently, the State Department had argued that the USS Kitty Hawk should remain in Australia and not pass the USS Constellation. But the Pentagon prevailed, and the exercise was a signal to China, and the region, that the US stood ready to maintain peace and stability. Intended or not, that action would also show Congress that the Clinton administration was not going to be soft on China...."

New York Times 8/14/99 Seth Faison "...If military conflict breaks out between China and Taiwan any time soon, military experts say, it is as likely to begin on this little island as anywhere. A mere three miles off the coast of southeast China, Matsu still belongs to Taiwan, which is more than 100 miles away. By its location alone, Matsu is highly vulnerable to attack from the Chinese army, and is guarded by a slim force of about 6,000 Taiwan soldiers..."

 

AP 8/14/99 "...Questions about China's intentions arose after Chinese officials sounded out U.S. specialists on how the Clinton administration might respond to military action against Taiwan. Douglas Paal, president of the Washington-based Asia Pacific Policy Center, said he had been visited separately by Chinese military, government and academic representatives. He described the meetings as ``much more intense'' than interviews he regularly has with them.

Paal said China regards the current difficulties with Taiwan as being more serious than the situation in 1996 when Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui engaged in a campaign to gain greater international recognition for Taiwan. He said the Chinese asked how the administration might respond to various possible situations but avoided describing specific scenarios that might suggest what they were considering. The Chinese talked about the possibility of capturing small, outlying Taiwanese islands, then appeared to back away from that option as too ambitious, Paal said. They also raised the possibility of attacking ships. The Chinese seemed to be carrying out a cost-benefit analysis, Paal said. ``They're in the process of trying to make a decision, and they want to know what the outcome would be,'' he said. James Mulvenon, a Chinese army specialist at the Rand research organization, said he also was approached by Chinese emissaries. ``They walk in with the same message,'' Mulvenon told The Washington Post. ``'We're going to do something. We can't tell you what, but we're going to do something.' The goal for China would be to cause maximum impact in Taiwan without bringing in the United States.'' ..."

REUTERS 8/14/99 "...The independent Sunday Morning Post newspaper said China's People's Liberation Army garrison in Hong Kong had been put on alert because of rising tensions between Beijing and Taiwan. "The 1,000 soldiers, sailors and aircrew guarding the SAR (special administrative region of Hong Kong) were said to have been placed on the third level of alert, the lowest of three rankings,'' the Post said under a banner front-page headline.

Citing a well-informed source, it said the third level alert meant helicopter gunships and missile boats had been placed on 24-hour readiness and holiday leave for soldiers and officers had been cancelled. No one was available at the PLA garrison in Hong Kong for an immediate comment of the report. The Post's source also said there was evidence electronic warfare units and equipment had been moved from inland regions of China into position near Xiamen in Fujian province, facing Taiwan. It said this was a sign of growing preparedness for possible military action by Beijing...."

The Star (Malay) 8/15/99 "...US China specialists say Chinese officials have been asking them how the US might respond to a variety of possible military actions against Taiwan in the wake of tentative Taiwanese moves toward independence. The Clinton administration repeated its longstanding warning that it would view with "grave concern" any effort to settle the conflict with Taiwan by other than peaceful means. It said there was no evidence of war preparations by China. "It's the United States government judgment that there aren't any extraordinary developments or signs that there is a mobilisation on the PRC's part," said National Security Council spokesman David Leavy said on Friday. Of immediate concern to the administration are the military aircraft that China and Taiwan have been flying in the Taiwan Strait over the past week. US officials have said an accident involving rival aircraft could have unpredictable consequences. One analyst said any Chinese action against Taiwan would have ruinous effects on Chinese ties to the West, threatening China's highly profitable trade with the United States and killing indefinitely China's hopes of joining the World Trade Organisation...."

The Straits Times 8/15/99 "...The Chinese military is studying various options, including the use of the latest space weapons, in the event that war with Taiwan breaks out, it was reported yesterday. Separately, a former employee of the Chinese Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence said that China had succeeded in producing a cruise missile with such precision that it could even hit Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's office desk.

Hongkong's Ming Pao Daily News quoted sources as saying that the Central Military Commission was looking into the various possible military tactics and was keen to engage in a war against Taiwan..."

C.N.A. 8/14/99 "...Taiwan's military is capable of deterring an attack by the mainland Chinese cruise missiles which Beijing authorities claimed have been successfully developed and deployed in major bases targeting Taiwan, a military strategist said on Saturday. Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Vice Chairman Lin Chung-ping, who is a Beijing military development expert, said Taiwan cannot afford to underestimate mainland China's military research and development capabilities. Taiwan should watch closely not only the People's Liberation Army's ballistic missile attacks, but also the overall "acupuncture point poking" warfare capability that the PLA may launch at any moment, Lin warned. Acupuncture point warfare refers to the application of information or other technologies to paralyze an enemy's military command and control centers. Lin said cruise missiles are comparatively more threatening to Taiwan than ballistic missiles, as cruise missiles are self-contained bombs that can cruise and change course according to geographic changes. Moreover, cruise missiles cannot be detected and are not easily destroyed...."

Nando Media 8/14/99 AP "...The independent Sunday Morning Post newspaper said China's People's Liberation Army garrison in Hong Kong has been put on alert because of rising tensions between mainland China and Taiwan.

"The 1,000 soldiers, sailors and air crew guarding the SAR (special administrative region of Hong Kong) were said to have been placed on the third level of alert, the lowest of three rankings," the Post said under a banner front-page headline. Citing a well-informed source, it said the third level alert meant helicopter gunships and missile boats had been placed on 24-hour readiness and holiday leave for soldiers and officers had been canceled...."

Hong Kong Standard 8/14/99 "...US fighter jets went through combat drills near Taiwanese airspace to help deter any mainland military moves, a newspaper has reported. For several consecutive days in late July and early August, F-14 and F-18 jets from a US aircraft carrier practiced drills off Taitung in southeastern Taiwan, the China Times Express quoted unidentified Taiwanese sources as saying. The paper did not name the US carrier or say how far from Taiwan's airspace the US jets flew. The drills were held after Washington called on Chinese and Taiwanese military to exercise restraint _ at a time when the mainland air force was apparently contemplating military action over Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's ``two-states'' comments, the newspaper said. In another incident, the newspaper said, a group of 10 Chinese Jian 7 and Jian 8 jets flew near the centre line of the Taiwan Straits. They were heading north when one jet suddenly turned east and crossed into Taiwan's airspace by 50km _ just two minutes flying time from the island.

The jet turned back to join the other mainland jets before Taiwanese military jets were about to respond, the report said. Meanwhile, weather satellites in the Pearl River Delta in Guangdong province have been disturbed by unidentified electromagnetic wave last week. Unidentified ``black holes'' appearing in the satellites' cloud charts over the past seven days showed they might be caused by abnormal air force manoeuvres in the southern province...."

 

China Times 8/17/99 "…Taiwan hackers have so far hacked 19 websites in mainland China, while hackers from the mainland on Monday infiltrated the website of the Investigation Bureau of the Justice Ministry, indicating that the "computer war" across the Taiwan Strait is continuing. A communist Chinese flag on the homepage of the Investigation Bureau was the latest twist in the cross-strait Internet war…."

stratfor.com 8/16/99 "…2055 GMT, 990816 Taiwan/China/United States – Taiwan President Lee Teng-Hui met with a delegation from the U.S. House Military Affairs Subcommittee August 16 and reaffirmed his "special state-state relationship" between Taiwan and China. Lee said that Taiwan’s mainland policy remains unchanged despite China’s hegemonic attitude. The delegation is jointly led by Senators Lindsey Graham and Solomon P. Ortiz. Both men say they support Lee’s statement and Graham stated that Beijing’s "one country, two systems proposal is doomed to failure."... "
China Times 8/17/99 AFP "…Taiwan authorities have launched a probe into claims that more than 34,000 Taiwanese have been "absorbed" by rival China's intelligence units, a report said Monday. The Taipei-based China Times said Beijing had stepped up spying on the nationalist island, cashing in on civil exchanges beginning in the late 1980s. Taiwanese paid some two million visits to the mainland each year either for visiting relatives, doing business or sight-seeing. Quoting Chinese documents, the paper said 34,477 Taiwanese were working in Chinese intelligence units, including 12,423 in Fujian province and 3,000 in Hainan….."

China Times 8/19/99 "…The Republic of China government is concerned about a probable meeting between US President Bill Clinton and his mainland Chinese counterpart, Jiang Zemin, in New Zealand in September, Foreign Minister Jason Hu said on Wednesday. Hu was responding to an announcement on Tuesday by the US Department of State that Clinton will attend the annual informal leadership meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum to be held in New Zealand from Sept. 12-13. As usual, Clinton is expected to take advantage of the annual event to hold bilateral talks with top leaders from other APEC countries, including mainland China. …. Hu said it remains unclear whether the coming Clinton-Jiang talks will focus on Taiwan-related issues, and added that he is also not sure at the moment whether Clinton and Jiang will meet outside the APEC framework. Beijing has intensified its saber-rattling against Taiwan since ROC President Lee Teng-hui defined relations across the Taiwan Strait as a "special state-to-state relationship" in an interview with a German radio station on July 9….."

The Straits Times 8/18/99 Ching Cheong "…TAIWAN will step up its fight against disinformation and espionage by China which, it says, threaten the island's security. The Defence Ministry, in a classified document, said there were over 300 Chinese agencies responsible for disseminating false information to create panic in Taiwan. These agencies came under one of these 12 organisations or groups: Central Military Commission, Ministry of Defence,

Second and Third Departments of the General Staff of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), Liaison section of the PLA's Political Department, Ministry of National Security, United Front Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs,

Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, Xinhua news agency, some academic bodies, some senior members of the National People's Congress and third-country business organisations in Taiwan….. The stories, the document added, were carried by The Sun, Ming Pao Daily News, Sing Tao Daily, South China Morning Post, Wen Wei Po and China News Agency in Hongkong. Foreign newspapers which carried the reports included the Sankei Shimbun, New York Times and Washington Post. Defence Ministry spokesman Kung Fan-ting confirmed that his ministry had double-checked the reports against its own information and found all 15 stories to be false….. On another front, the National Security Bureau (NSB) said on Monday that it had recently intercepted a classified document belonging to China's State Security Ministry. It showed that as many as 34,477 Taiwanese were spying for China. province alone recruited 12,423 -- or 36 per cent -- of the spies. Eighty-five were recruited by the PLA, 95 by the Chinese Communist Party organisations and 198 by various government ministries. The rest worked for the provincial authorities. The NSB considered the rate of infiltration "alarming"…."

Sydney Morning Herald 8/19/99 David Lague "…China's Army warned yesterday that it was willing to sacrifice lives to block independence for Taiwan as Beijing continued its psychological war against the Taipei Government. The 3-million strong People's Liberation Army also disputed Western claims that its hardware was obsolete with a reminder that it had submarine-launched nuclear weapons, advanced missiles and modern tanks. In a front-page commentary, the official Liberation Army Daily, the PLA mouthpiece, said Taiwan's heavy spending on high-technology weaponry would not be enough to avert defeat. It reminded Taiwan that 50 years ago during the civil war the PLA, armed with just "millet and rifles", had defeated the 8 million-strong Nationalist forces armed with American weapons. "We would rather lose a thousand soldiers than lose an inch of land," the paper said…."

Telegraph 8/19/99 "…PRESIDENT LEE TENG-HUI of Taiwan said yesterday that his island needed the protection of a proposed US-Japanese "Star Wars"-style anti-missile shield. His backing for the programme, the Theatre Missile Defence system, will further enrage Beijing, which is already furious at Mr Lee's recent call for Taiwan to be treated as an equal by the Chinese mainland. Beijing, which regards the island as a rebel province, has denounced the TMD project as an American-led plot to dominate Asia. In the face of heightened military threats from the mainland, Mr Lee said yesterday: "Setting up a TMD system would cope with the current situation and be in the nation's interest. Every effort [for the system] deserves praise." On Monday, US and Japanese officials signed an agreement to research the satellite-linked TMD project amid fears that North Korea is preparing to test a new long-range missile. The ship-based system could easily be extended to cover the island…."

China Times 8/20/99 AFP "…China on Thursday kept up pressure on Taiwan, warning the United States that it was fully prepared to launch an attack on the island if necessary, regardless of the cost. The official Global Times -- a weekly published by the Communist Party flagship People's Daily -- issued the warning in a lengthy commentary under the front-page banner headline "USA, do not mix in." …"

China Times 8/19/99 AFP "…A top Chinese leader Thursday warned Hong Kong's media not to support or publicize remarks made by Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui that Taiwan should have "state-to-state" relations with China. Vice Premier Qian Qichen was quoted by Hong Kong media as saying it was "inappropriate" for Hong Kong people to openly publicize Lee's call for a separate status, which Beijing considers a call for a totally independent Taiwan. In a meeting in Beijing with visiting Hong Kong Justice Secretary Elsie Leung, Qian said such a move could be "an offence against the Chinese government's 'one China' policy and the policy of the State Council." …"

China Times 8/19/99 C.N.A. "…The United States Department of Defense said Tuesday that it is not aware of any extraordinary activity by mainland Chinese Marines. Meanwhile, when asked whether the United States has gradually reduced the quantity and quality of arms sales to Taiwan in accordance with the Aug. 17 communique signed with Beijing in 1982, State Department spokesman James Rubin said, "We believe we have lived up to all the communiques (signed by Beijing and Washington) as well as the Taiwan Relations Act." The Xinhua News Agency reported Tuesday that mainland Chinese Marines were training for an amphibious landing somewhere in the South China Sea. …"

Defense Department USIA 8/17/99 "…Q: On China. The Xinhua, official Chinese news agency report in a piece denouncing the Taiwan independence, statements that Marines were training for an amphibious landing somewhere in the South China Sea. Is the Pentagon aware of anything? Are there any concerns about a Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan? BACON: China has about 5,000 Marines, an extremely small force. It has a very small fleet of amphibious vehicles, amphibious craft. The Marines are based generally down in the south in a place called Zhanjiang and they have standard training. We're not aware that there's anything extraordinary going on with the marines, aside from their normal training…."

CNA (Taiwan) 8/19/99 Jay Chen and Sofia Wu "….Mainland Chinese President Jiang Zemin has written a letter to US President Bill Clinton demanding him to cease arms sales to Taiwan amid the controversy over the "special state-to-state relationship" theory. According to reliable sources, Jiang sent the letter to Clinton between late July and early August. Jiang demanded in the letter that the United States cut arms sales to Taiwan and force Taipei to back off its "state-to-state" theory and start negotiations with Beijing under the so-called "one China" principle…."

Reuters 8/19/99 "…China's ambassador to the United States warned against U.S. politicians exploiting the crisis over Taiwan Thursday but expressed confidence it would not cause lasting damage to U.S.-China relations.

Ambassador Li Zhao Xing called a news conference to repeat Beijing's denunciations of Taiwan's President Lee Teng-hui's call for political equality with China and to restate Chinese policy not to rule out use of force to achieve reunification. Asked whether he was worried that the issue would be blown up by pro-Taiwanese American politicians in early skirmishing for next year's U.S. presidential election, Li said, "Yes, we are concerned.'' Some contenders for the Republican nomination for next year's U.S. presidential election have come out in favor of strong U.S. intervention should China take any military action against Taiwan. …"

Sydney Morning Herald 8/20/99 David Lague "…China warned yesterday that it was ready to fight over Taiwan and that its nuclear weapons could "deal with" aircraft carriers if the United States dared to interfere.... A hard-hitting editorial in the official Global Times newspaper, a subsidiary of the Communist Party mouthpiece, the People's Daily, said the US and other Western countries were mistaken if they believed China lacked the ability or will to use force in a dispute over Taiwan.... "

Strafor, Inc. 8/19/99 "…0135 GMT, 990819 Taiwan has grounded its entire F-16 fleet following an accident, thereby depriving the island of a significant measure of its defensive capabilities. The move is inexplicable in geopolitical terms, especially at this tense period. However, it may make sense if seen as a message by Taiwan to China. …..Despite the official reassurance, the 150 F-16s are a vital part of Taiwan’s air defense capability, which, as we have said before, constitutes a critical defense capability for Taiwan…..All of this leads us to believe that, while the crash was no doubt an accident, Taiwan meant this grounding as a signal. Realizing that the game has gone on long enough, the Taiwanese could be lowering its sword to signal to the Chinese that enough is enough and that the situation should be resolved. Unfortunately for Taiwan, there’s no reason to believe that China can accept this action as a legitimate de-escalation. China has told that world that it has to punish Taiwan. It simply can’t afford to withdraw without some type of action. Another possibility is that Taiwan is lowering its sword to make itself look weak in an attempt to "bait" China into action. A direct invasion of Taiwan is still a fantasy, but an attempt at the islands of Matsu and Quemoy is seen by all sides as a real possibility…."

Stratfor.com 8/20/99 "…China has once again raised the level of its threats against Taiwan, warning in an article in the Global Times that, "If the Taiwan authorities think the mainland can only launch a propaganda or psychological war, they are mistaken." Included in the article, entitled "USA, do not mix in," China claimed that it "has already finished all preparations for any use of force against Taiwan." In addition to threatening Taiwan, however, China also warned that no external force could protect Taiwan, and, in a statement directed at the United States, that, "China’s neutron bombs are more than enough to handle aircraft carriers." China is now clearly signaling to the United States that it intends to act over Taiwan President Lee Teng-Hui’s state-to-state comments. More importantly, China is also informing Washington that, if the U.S. interferes, China will not hold back as it did in 1996. For the United States, China’s warnings necessitate a careful calculation of its potential responses to a variety of possible Chinese actions and the ultimate consequences of those responses for both the U.S. and China…."

The Straits Times 8/20/99 "…Chinese President Jiang Zemin has written to US President Bill Clinton to urge Washington to stop arms sales to Taipei, reports here said yesterday. The China Times Express quoted reliable sources in Washington as saying that the Chinese leader wrote to his US counterpart between late last month and early this month, but has yet to receive a reply. In his letter, Mr Jiang was said to have called on the United States to stop its arms sales to Taiwan. He also wanted Washington to "compel" Taipei to forsake its "two states" theory and to hold talks with Beijing on a clear "one China" premise…."

Hong Kong Tung Fang Jih Pao in Chinese 8/15/99 "…Taiwan's Kung-Shang Shi-Pao [The Commercial Times] disclosed [date not mentioned] that Beijing and Washington had an under-the-counter deal on the Taiwan visit by Wang Daohan [chairman of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait] and they agreed to settle the Taiwan issue in accordance with the Hong Kong formula. The deal, however, was sabotaged by Li Denghui's two-state theory, which has given rise to a big uproar. ... Under this plan, Wang Daohan, during his planned visit to Taiwan, would propose to Taiwan to reach an "intermediate agreement" that will encourage Taiwan to accept the "Hong Kong formula" but will give Taiwan more liberal treatments than those for Hong Kong; and Washington would exercise pressure on Taiwan to compel Taiwan to accept the Mainland's peaceful reunification policy.

According to the paper, the under-the-counter deal might be the fuse that led to Li Denghui's "two-state theory," which displeased both Beijing and Washington; and US authorities even wanted to punish Taiwan because of the theory. ... after Li Denghui presented his two-state theory, Clinton openly mentioned the "Hong Kong formula" at the White House press conference, and why the postponement of Wang Daohan's Taiwan visit still has not been announced. The sources said that, because the US proposal was beneficial to the reunification of the two sides, Beijing, for the first time, permitted the United States to be "involved in its internal Mainland policy." …"

Associated Press 8/20/99 "…China denounced Taiwan's attempt to regain its seat in the United Nations, and warned Thursday that the island's affirmation of statehood is threatening the stability of the Asia Pacific region. In a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, China's U.N. Ambassador Qin Huasun said the attempt to create ``two Chinas'' in the United Nations ``would only fan the flames of Taiwan's separatist activities and hinder China's peaceful reunification.'' …"

AFP 8/20/99 "…Taiwan Premier Vincent Siew will meet US President Bill Clinton in Panama next month during the inauguration of Panama's new president, a move bound to incense China, a newspaper reported here Friday. "Siew is expected to deliver a personal letter from President Lee Teng-hui to Clinton," the Economic Daily News said. The foreign ministry confirmed that Siew would be going to Panama, a diplomatic ally of Taiwan, for Mireya Moscoso's inauguration as president, but government spokesman Chen Chien-jen dismissed the report as "groundless." …"

Financial Times 8/20/99 Mure Dickie "…Taiwan yesterday moved closer to the creation of an island-wide defence system designed to protect it against missiles fired by mainland China, a plan likely to heighten tensions between Taipei and Beijing. The cabinet said it would forward proposals for the development of the shield - an extension of existing anti-missile batteries already deployed around key cities - to the legislature next month….."

 

The Economist 8/21-27/99 "… Mr Lee’s remark, which he has repeated many times, has brought cross-straits relations to a dangerous point, especially for the United States. Certainly, China is sounding more belligerent. The rumble of tanks through Beijing on August 16th, rehearsing for a giant military parade to mark the 50th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic on October 1st, helped make its anger seem noisier. Chinese marines exercising in the South China Sea "would not sit by and watch the split of any inch of the motherland’s territory," announced the official party newspaper, the People’s Daily….. And he may have reckoned he must speak now or never. Of late Taiwan has seen the Americans trying to cosy up to China. Relations were soured by the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. However, China can see one, welcome constant in Chinese-American relations: the consistent affirmation by the Clinton administration of its adherence to the "one-China" policy. This has been reaffirmed repeatedly since Mr Lee’s controversial remarks. Meanwhile, some of the once-solid pro-Taiwan support in Washington has slipped away, a victim of political realities…. Those Americans who were already turning less sympathetic to Taiwan have become even cooler since his remarks. Some now see him as endangering the United States’ interests by dragging it into a clash with China. All the more reason, perhaps, for Mr Lee to persist with his red-baiting. After all, says Andrew Yang Nien-dzu, secretary-general of the Council of Advanced Policy Studies in Taipei, his political problems really will begin if the mainland does not react "belligerently or irrationally". ….. So a rational leader of China would not attack Taiwan now. And the Chinese leadership does seem to have hoisted on board the lessons of 1995-96: that military half-measures achieve nothing, no matter what a small but vocal band of aggressive generals in the People’s Liberation Army may say. On the other hand, caution some, Mr Lee has limited China’s room for manoeuvre. Not only has he changed the rules of the game but, according to a recent survey, 77% of Taiwanese happen to think he is right…."